21%

Happy New Year!  

A new poll came out on Friday that had Dean Phillips up to 21% in New Hampshire in the Democratic primary.  Joe Biden was at 58% and Marianne Williamson at 5%.  

This is a major piece of news.  Dean Phillips declared just two months ago. To go from 0 to 21% in 2 months is stunning.  

This is particularly true as the awareness of Dean in New Hampshire remains low - his name ID is below 50% in the state.  Most voters still haven’t tuned in.  Imagine if most people realized that there was an appealing option outside of Biden that also matches up better against Trump? 

Factor in the fact that Joe Biden will be a write-in and the picture is clear - Dean Phillips can win in New Hampshire on January 23rd.  This would be a political earthquake.  

Now, he still has to grow in the next two weeks.  An ad campaign would help - I’d urge you to donate today so that his campaign can get the word out in New Hampshire.  

But if he gets the resources, Dean can win. A new positive 54-year old nominee is what most Americans want.  

Can the Democrats succeed in upgrading from their unpopular 81-year old incumbent in time?  We are going to find out a lot on January 23rd in New Hampshire.  

I have the feeling that Dean is going to keep on climbing past 21% - let’s help him get there, for all of our sakes.  

2024

Happy New Year!  2024 is going to be a huge year. 
 
Huge good, or not-so-good?  This week on the podcast I welcome back old friend Zach Graumann to make some predictions for the New Year. 
 
On the economic front, I predict that the mild recession that we avoided in 2023 will come to pass in 2024.  There are signs of consumer weakness in credit card and auto loan delinquencies and failure to repay student loan debt among other early indicators, and the colossal imbalances in commercial real estate have yet to be reckoned with.  The locked up residential real estate market won’t help.  Startups are in survival mode and cash is scarce.  At some point, the negative feelings about the economy will spill into behavior, and I think that hits in ’24. 
 
There are times to take risks and times to pull back.  I think this year is the latter in terms of the economy. 
 
Of course, any downturn makes the political climate rockier for an incumbent.  Zach and I make the bold prediction that Joe Biden won’t be the Democratic nominee.  This is self-serving as Zach is working on the Dean Phillips campaign, but Joe Biden’s polling collapse and advanced age have stirred unease and questions that will only heat up.  Will an alternative emerge from within the Democratic Party?  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd and will be the first big indication whether we are in for a coronation or a competition.  We, and most Americans, would prefer the latter. 
 
I also predict that third party candidates – RFK Jr., Cornel West, Jill Stein, Joe Manchin?? – will get their highest share of the national vote since 1992, when Ross Perot got 18.9%. With 75% of Americans thinking we are on the wrong track and 65% despairing about the two-party system, a lot of people will be willing to vote differently this year. 
 
(In case you’re wondering what Forward is up to in ’24, we will be supporting local candidates in swing states like Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina to boost the turnout for those who aren’t extremists, perhaps helping the country avoid an authoritarian returning to the White House.  Good plan!)
 
Zach and I both believe that 2024 is the year that AI hits your workplace in earnest, as it becomes part of the way organizations function.  Last year firms hired AI consultants.  This year they start implementing.  That will have mixed effects to say the least.  I talked to a CIO who said that AI is already replacing coders offshore, and is accelerating and assisting unskilled coders making them more productive.  On the other hand, some experienced coders have become less relevant.  So some people are winning and some are losing.  This will play out differently in different orgs, but it’s coming to a workplace near you.    
 
We also think that 2024 will be the AI election cycle, with deepfake videos and audio recordings hitting down the stretch just as voting starts.  You might want to turn away from your social media feed starting in October or so, as the incentives to inflame or misinform voters will be sky-high and the information environment with be toxic and out-of-control.  Other countries have started seeing this, and we will too. 
 
These are strange and challenging times – but there will be positive opportunities.  One of them is to turn the page by getting behind a 54-year old upstart presidential candidate challenging the 81-year old unpopular incumbent; imagine having a young dynamic President who doesn’t owe the machine anything in power.  That’s how I’d like the year to end.  It hinges on the voters of New Hampshire making their voices heard on January 23rd.

For my convo with Zach about the year ahead, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here – he may be our best hope for ’24.  To join Forward in boosting positive local candidates, click here. 

Happy Holidays!!

Hello and Happy Holidays to you and yours!  I hope that you are celebrating with friends and family.  

I remember as a kid being thrilled the first time I saw holiday lights go up in the neighborhood.  My parents were often the ones hosting our relatives in our house so I associate this time of year with having lots of family members around.  Now as a Dad I try to do the same thing though Evelyn and I aren’t the greatest hosts, and because our parents are on the older side now, we often go to them. 

I’m at an age now when many of my friends’ parents are having health problems.  It’s made me eager to spend as much time with my folks as we can.  I try to convey to Christopher and Damian everything that their grandparents went through as immigrants to this country, and how grateful they should be.  They definitely don’t get that right now because they’re kids – but I hope it sinks in down the road.

I also try to tell our boys – when they fight – that they should appreciate each other, because they will always have each other.  They will always be brothers.  And they should feel lucky that they have each other.  Of course they don’t really get that now either.  Maybe later they will. 

For a lot of folks in the world, it’s been a difficult year.  I spend a lot of my time trying to improve things, and I confess that sometimes it feels like the ground is muddy beneath my feet and I’m walking uphill. 

But I’m surrounded by incredible people who are trying to solve problems and make life better for those around them.  It’s invigorating getting to do work you care about every day.  

Thank you for making that possible for me. 

In many ways, that’s what I think the Holidays are about - appreciating the people in our lives and all that we have to be grateful for here and now.  And from that gratitude, good things will grow. 

Happy Holidays from our family to yours!  Let the people in your life know how much they mean to you. 🙂

- Andrew, Evelyn, Christopher and Damian

37%

Hello, I hope that your Holiday Season is off to a great start! 
 
I was on CNN last week talking about the collapsing support for President Biden in the recent polls.  The numbers are stunning. 
 
Biden’s approval rating has plummeted to 37% in several recent polls.  His approval rating is lower than any other President at this point in history.  And everyone else even close to him went on to lose. 

Credit:  Tom Leung / Nerds for Humanity 

Bloomberg has Biden down 10 points to Trump in Michigan, a key swing state that Biden won in 2020.  The same poll has Biden’s deficit at 5 points in Georgia, another key swing state.  A poll in Minnesota has the result within the margin of error; this is a state that Joe Biden won by 7 points in 2020 and isn’t even considered a swing state.  If Joe Biden has to spend money and energy shoring up a place like Minnesota, that’s a disaster.  Pew has Joe Biden’s approval rating nationwide at a shocking 33%.

2 months ago, you would say, “Okay, this is going to be a close election,  maybe 50-50.”  Now, it is very difficult to look at these numbers and say anything other than, if the election were to be held tomorrow, Trump would be the prohibitive favorite to win.  Trump is also rolling through the Republican primary. 
 
So, is a turnaround for Joe Biden in the offing?  There are a number of reasons that suggest it won’t be. 
 
First, the trend right now is clearly negative.  Biden’s numbers are slumping and disintegrating in real time.  People are increasingly fed up. 
 
Second, the Biden campaign spent $25 million on an advertising campaign intended to buck up his numbers in the swing states.  The effect?  Zero.  This is not a situation that an advertising campaign can fix. 
 
Third, the President is 81 years old.  I am regularly seeing videos of his latest verbal stumbles in my social media feed despite not looking for them.  It is very difficult to reinvent grandpa.  You can’t just send him out to do some friendly interviews and hope people are reminded of why they liked him.  He’s different in 2024 than he is in 2020. 
 
Fourth, on some level, voters believe Joe Biden is making a selfish decision by running again and are holding it against him.  His strength is that he’s a good man and loves this country.  But his decision to run again seems to be putting his own ego ahead of the country’s interests, particularly in light of his recent statement that “There are 50 Democrats who could defeat Trump.” 
 
He’s right.  This is the opposite of his campaign in 2020, when he said essentially, “I’m the only one who can defeat Trump.” 
 
Now, 4 years later, he is probably the weakest candidate.  He’s gone from being the best candidate against Trump to the worst. 
 
Last week I publicly asked Joe Biden to step aside and let a real primary play out.  In my view, conscientious Americans who don’t want a Trump return should be supporting Dean Phillips, the only elected official who has decided to run against Biden for the sake of the country.  The best hope to defeat Trump is to field the strongest possible nominee. 
 
Indeed, the same polls that have Joe losing to Trump by several points have a generic Democrat defeating Trump by 8 points.  Imagine if Trump were running against a sane, positive 54-year old Democrat like Dean; all of a sudden voters would rejoice that they had a genuine choice.  It would feel refreshing, particularly against a candidate like Trump.    
 
New Hampshire votes on January 23rd – I believe that if they know they have an option in Dean Phillips, they will jump on it.  Zach Graumann, who most of you know as my campaign manager, has already joined Dean’s campaign.  It’s going to be a busy month.  And a ton is riding on waking voters up to a better option than sleepwalking into disaster. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  To help cure our political system check out Forward – we are having a big year-end online event tonight.    

Dean Phillips ‘24

Hello, I hope that your holidays are going great. 
 
This week on the podcast I interview Dean Phillips, Democratic candidate for President.  I’m excited about his campaign for a few reasons.

First, I think that he dramatically improves the chances of not having Donald Trump win in ‘24.  Joe Biden’s approval ratings are now down to 37% (!!!) and he is losing to Trump in most of the swing states.  The Democrats should be furiously searching for a candidate who is better situated to defeat Trump.  Someone like, say, a 54-year old moderate Congressman from Minnesota who won a red-leaning district 3 times. 
 
“People didn’t think that I could win that first race, but I got out and ran a positive campaign.  Not only did we win but my margin of victory went up in each race.” 
 
Dean made headlines as a member of Congress when he stated what most people believe: that Joe Biden should make way for another candidate.  “When people say one thing in private and another thing in public, it’s dangerous.  The numbers are clear that President Biden isn’t well-positioned against Trump, but no one was willing to say it when a camera was on them even as they were saying it to each other every day.” 
 
“I went out and asked other people to run.  When no one else was willing to do it, I decided I couldn’t stand by when the country is at such a pivotal point.  I told my daughters I was going to do everything I could against Trump, and I’m going to do just that.” 
 
What would Dean do as President?  “First, I’m going to be a leader for all Americans.  I’m going to have a team of rivals in my Cabinet.  Good ideas come from anywhere, not just from one party.  We need to repair America.  I’m going to have a youth Cabinet from all 50 states as well.  Young people need more voice.” 
 
“Second, everywhere I go Americans are struggling.  Housing costs are too high and there’s a national shortage.  We should build 7 million new homes immediately. We need a national healthcare system so that no one is going bankrupt from going sick.  I will make sure we have a universal healthcare system.  We have to reduce the cost of education and the debt load for millions of Americans.  I’m also for piloting UBI because I think AI is going to disrupt the jobs and livelihoods of a lot of Americans.  I’m going to make America affordable for people and families.” 
 
Dean and I met at a campaign finance reform event.  “Our system is corruptive.  I’m for open primaries, ranked choice voting and publicly financing elections.  I’m for term limits.  My colleagues in Congress spend thousands of hours a week dialing for dollars.  If everyone you talk to is rich, you lose touch with how most Americans live, where most are living paycheck to paycheck and 40% can’t afford a $400 bill.” 
 
Can Dean win?  I think he can because of the way the calendar is laid out.  New Hampshire votes on January 23rd, and it’s not a state that Joe Biden has ever done well in, even before he demoted them for South Carolina.  “When we win New Hampshire, imagine the headlines on January 24th.  All of a sudden a ton of people will be paying attention.”  Dean is already at 15% in New Hampshire and climbing.  The more people see of him, the better he’s going to do. 
 
The threshold issue is whether he becomes widely known enough fast enough.  If he does, I think he will win, as a majority of Democrats are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Joe Biden as the 81-year old incumbent.  Voters will have their say starting on January 23rd.  
 
Dean is determined.  “My Dad died for this country in Vietnam, and I think about it all the time.  The least I can do is tell the truth and do my best on this campaign.”  
 
To hear my interview with Dean, click here.  To check out his campaign, click here.  I’ve donated to Dean and I hope you consider doing so as well.  And tell your friends!  It may not seem like it, but Dean could be the most truly transformative political figure in a generation.  

Andy Kim

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great. 

This week I had the opportunity to spend time with Andy Kim, who is running to be the next U.S. Senator from the Garden State.  I’ve known Andy for years; he’s a man of integrity.    

“I didn’t know I was going to run for the Senate.  But I heard Bob Menendez say, ‘I’m not going anywhere’ and it offended me.  It’s not his job.  It’s the people’s job.  And I knew I had to run to get Bob out and give the people a real choice.”

Since Andy declared, people have been rallying to his side.  More than 80% of New Jersey voters regard their political leadership as corrupt.  But they sense in Andy the opposite; an earnest public servant who spent nearly a decade in the State department before running for Congress and winning in a red-leaning district on the Jersey Shore. 

“No one thought I could win” that first Congressional race, Andy relates.  “I just got out there and talked to voters and wound up winning a very tight race.  4 years later I won by double digits.”  It turns out that most people just want a workhorse legislator working for the people. 

Now, he’s taking on an even bigger challenge running statewide.  “I’ve been criss-crossing New Jersey introducing myself to voters who don’t know me as well.  The energy has been electric everywhere I have gone.  People are tired and want a new generation of leaders who they actually believe are in it for the right reasons.  We deserve better leadership.  How is it that in a country of 330 million people we can’t find 535 people to fill these jobs who aren’t corrupt or self-serving?” 

Andy is motivated by his young family.  “My parents immigrated here 50 years ago for a better life.  Now are we going to leave a better life for our kids?  That’s what drives me.  The hardest part of doing this job is spending time away from my kids.  But I decided that I may not be the ‘tuck my kids in every night Dad,’ I’m going to be the ‘I did everything I could to fight for their future’ Dad.” 

A dedicated public servant like Andy would certainly be a dramatic turn from Bob Menendez, who has become an emblem of insider corruption.  Andy is as upright as it gets.  His campaign is a tremendous opportunity to turn the page on politics as usual in New Jersey.

To check out Andy Kim’s campaign go to https://andykim.com.  He’ll make a phenomenal Senator.  Let’s help him win.    

The Republican Field

Hello, I hope the holidays are going well for you and yours! 

The 4th Republican Debate is this week, which seems like a good time to revisit the Republican Field. 

The three candidates who will be onstage this week are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and Vivek Ramaswamy.  Chris Christie seems on track to miss this debate.    

Nikki Haley has a ton of momentum – a recent town hall in South Carolina became a rally with overflow crowds.  Donors are coming her way.  Her campaign just reserved $10 million in television ads, the campaign’s first, in the early states.  The Koch brothers just endorsed her which should mean tens of millions of dollars in PAC support as well as more boots on the ground. 

The question is can she rise up to defeat Trump, who is still the prohibitive favorite?  Trump is polling at between 42 – 45% in the early states, and 60% nationally with Republicans. 

Here was always the worst nightmare – Trump has 40 – 50% of the Republican electorate while 4 other candidates break up the rest, leaving Trump to roll while the other candidates jockey to be his alternative and lose down the stretch.  It’s what happened in 2016 with Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. 

Will it happen again in 2024?  It looks like it.  Let’s take the remaining candidates in turn. 

Ron DeSantis has gone all in on Iowa.  If he does poorly there – anything worse than a strong 2nd place is a wrap - he will suspend his campaign.  But he’s certainly not getting out before Iowa votes. 

Vivek Ramaswamy has already committed $12 million in ad buys to both Iowa and New Hampshire.  That’s not something you do if you’re not going to be at the polls.  

Chris Christie has bet everything on New Hampshire. 

The best case for Nikki Haley is that Chris Christie drops out and endorses her, DeSantis drops out after Iowa and Ramaswamy drops out after New Hampshire.  Still, their presence will make it highly unlikely that she wins either of those states.  The odds are high that Trump will win both Iowa and New Hampshire, which will bring it down to South Carolina. 

South Carolina is a must-win state for Nikki Haley, as she was the popular governor there.  Current polling has Trump at 50% in South Carolina to 20% for Nikki Haley. 

Can Nikki Haley consolidate all other non-Trump voters in South Carolina AND eat into Trump’s base?  That’s an awfully tall order.  A lot of DeSantis or Ramaswamy fans will default to Trump. 

Is it good enough for Nikki Haley to finish a strong second in her home state, after losing both Iowa and New Hampshire?  Probably not. 

Nikki Haley has momentum and would make a very formidable opponent against Joe Biden in the general election; indeed I think she’d be a heavy favorite against Joe.  I believe contributing to Nikki Haley and urging people to vote for her is a fine idea for those of us who think Trump is a near-existential threat to American democracy.  

But unless something dramatic happens, expect Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee in 2024.  

Want to upgrade the Biden–Trump rematch?  In my opinion, the best chance to do so is Dean Phillips on the Democratic side, who is already at 10-15% in New Hampshire and rising fast.  Check out Dean and his campaign here.    

Healing

Hello, I hope you had a wonderful holiday with friends and family!  Evelyn and I ate too much. 
 
The holidays are a joyous time but also a difficult time for many Americans.  How do we make people happier and more mentally healthy?  That’s the subject of Thomas Insel’s book “Healing: Our Path From Mental Illness to Mental Health.”  Tom would know as the former director of the National Institute of Mental Health, a billion-dollar federal agency that funds mental health research.  Tom is also an advisor to the Good Life Movement, a public movement of action for mental health. 

Tom’s book is born of hard-won experience.  He recalls speaking to an audience about mental health research when an impassioned parent said, “You really don’t get it.  My 23-year old son has schizophrenia.  He has been hospitalized five times . . . and now he is homeless.  Our house is on fire and you are talking about the chemistry of the paint.”  Tom does get it.  His son had struggles with ADHD and his daughter with anorexia.  There is now broad acknowledgment that America has a mental health crisis on its hands, whether it’s anxiety and depression or deaths of despair.  Indeed, according to Tom 60% of mental illness goes untreated.
 
“Our current approach is a disaster on many fronts.  Not only is mental health care delivered ineffectively, but it is mostly accessed during a crisis and strategically focused only on relieving symptoms and not on helping people recover,” Tom writes. 
 
Tom discusses the closing of 95% of public hospital beds for the mentally ill coupled with the dramatic increase of prisons over the last 50 years.  As he puts it painfully, “America has invested in incarceration instead of rehabilitation” to the point that “hospitals have become prisons and prisons have become hospitals.”
 
So what works?  One thing with demonstrated effectiveness is Coordinated Specialty Care, which is when family education and support, case management, psychotherapy, medication management and work or education support are all coordinated together when someone has their first psychotic episode.  Too often, different parts of someone’s life don’t talk to each other, particularly if people stigmatize treatment. 
 
Tom sees a role for technology, but “technology will not and cannot replace boots on the ground.  We will need clinical experts, we will need hospitals and crisis teams, and we will need people who can listen when someone has turned off their phone or unplugged from social media . . .[we need] both high tech and high touch.” 
 
Tom diagnoses the failures of the marketplace – that we have a ‘sick-care’ system not a healthcare system that only prioritizes well-being after the fact.  Tom follows the numbers that show that our problems are tied together – that mental health is tied to our housing crisis, our poverty crisis and increasing disparities.  “This growing outcome gap is related to the growing income gap.” 
 
So what is the path forward?  Tom writes, “My hope for our country, after all I have seen over forty-five years in the field, is to redefine mental health care to include recovery and prevention.”  He argues for measuring better outcomes and reimbursing for mental health care and recovery the same way we do for physical injury. 
 
It’s encouraging to see someone from the highest levels of government acknowledge the need for fundamental new approaches.  “Recovery is more than a reduction in symptoms:  it is the return to a full and meaningful life . . . It’s the three Ps.  It’s people, place and purpose.”  We need more of these for more people, both before and after they struggle. 
 
For my interview with Tom about his book, click here.  For the Good Life Movement click here.  To improve our politics and meet some awesome people in your community, check out Forward here.  For a presidential candidate who wants universal healthcare, check out Dean Phillips here.  

A Broken Congress

Great news – the federal government won’t run out of money this week!  Rejoice! 
 
That is literally what qualifies as tremendous news out of Congress today.  Speaker Michael Johnson has managed to squeeze a funding resolution through his narrow to nonexistent majority with the help of a host of Democrats.  The same handful of conservatives who ousted Kevin McCarthy are now plotting their revenge. 
 
Keep in mind that this resolution doesn’t last long – it merely kicks the can down the road until January when different spending levels are to be hashed out. 
 
As a sign of the times, former speaker Kevin McCarthy elbowed Tim Burchett, one of his ousters, in the hallways of Congress this week.  I guess he’s not over it.    
 
If you understood what is happening – or not happening - in Congress today you’d be appalled.  There’s a rule called the Hastert Rule that says nothing gets brought to the floor unless a majority of the majority party supports it.  That means that every member of the minority party can’t bring meaningful bills to the floor.  One member said to me, “If you’re in the minority party and don’t have an important committee assignment, you might as well be a piece of furniture.” 
 
The days of legislators from both parties wrangling a bipartisan agreement are long gone.  Instead, members are often presented with legislation with minutes or hours to review it before being asked to vote for it – with the expectation that of course they won’t vote for it.  Worse yet, that even happens to majority members sometimes, where they too will be asked to vote for laws they’ve barely had time to review, and the expectation is that they’ll sign off.   
 
The parties are more concerned with scoring points on each other than delivering good policy.  2 members wrote, “Why is our status as members of different political parties seemingly more potent than our shared love for America, our many areas of agreement, and our shared responsibility to solve problems and get results?  Why are we more often opponents than colleagues? . . . Because the system is built to tear us apart.  In American politics, winning isn’t winning unless the other side is losing . . . “
 
Presidential candidate and third-term Congressman Dean Phillips said, “Members spend 10,000 hours a week dialing for dollars.  It’s insane.  I’m the only member who has declined to fundraise, which means I have a lot more time on my hands to serve my constituents instead of asking people for money.” Many Congressmen spend more time on fundraising than legislating. 
 
This week on the podcast, I interview Kevin Kosar, who worked at Congress on the policy side for years before joining a thinktank and penning the book, “Congress Overwhelmed: The Decline in Congressional Capacity and Prospects for Reform.” 
 
“Congress has been reducing its policymaking capacities for decades, just as they’ve needed to do the opposite,” Kevin says.  “They got rid of the Office of Technology Assessment in the 90s, just before technology started to take off.”  Kevin’s concerns began years ago.  “I started seeing hearings degenerate into theatre and posturing instead of fact-finding, and said ‘uh-oh.’  And it’s gotten much worse since then.”
 
What can be done to improve things?  Here, Kevin offers some hope.  “What is crazy is that it’s totally up to Congress how to run itself.  There’s nothing in the Constitution about how Congress operates; the rules have just developed over time and now they’re making everyone miserable.  They can be changed at any time by Congress itself.” 
 
Meanwhile, expect more tension and drama in January as the fragile Republican majority gets put to the test again.  Hopefully no more elbows get thrown. 
 
For my interview with political scientist Kevin Kosar about how to fix Congress click here.  To see how Forward is working on improving our politics, click here.  To check out the Dean Phillips presidential campaign, click here – I think Dean may be our best chance to avoid a Biden – Trump rematch. 

Caution

A couple months ago, I attended an open house for a property that was for sale.  We weren’t really looking, but sometimes those things are fun.  This was a property that you could imagine buying as an investment. 

The problem was that the numbers didn’t make any sense.  At what they were asking for, the income generation of the property as a rental was maybe 3.5%.  Mortgage rates today are more than twice that.  And you can get higher interest rates on high-yield savings accounts.  I concluded that the listing price was about 40% over what I would deem a good value.  In the weeks since, they’ve cut the price multiple times, still to no takers. 

On the flip side, you have buyers who feel frozen out of the market because prices remain too high and no one can afford a mortgage.  A young couple who had been house hunting until recently said to me, “We’ve given up looking for the time being.” 

I talked to a friend in commercial real estate in New York – think office buildings.  “It’s a mess,” he says.  “Every day’s a new issue or problem.  And we aren’t fully occupied, not to previous levels.  I’d consider selling, but I don’t think we could get fair value, in part because no one is sure what fair value is now on an office building in Manhattan except that it’s a lot lower than the last appraisal.”  The level of commercial real estate debt that comes due in the next 18 months is over $1 trillion. 

I had lunch with a friend who invests in startups.  She told a similar story.  “There are dozens of companies that raised money in 2021 at valuations that now they can’t justify.  There are going to be massive haircuts of 50% or more, and those are the companies that are able to access new money.  A lot of them won’t be able to.”  She saw a lot of dying companies or depressed entrepreneurs in the not-so-distant future. 

There are strikes in the news every day, whether it’s the UAW or the actors, though I’m thrilled that the latter strike was just resolved.  One reason the media feels so shrill is that a lot of those companies are struggling to make money – even flagship names like the Washington Post.  Student loan repayment has kicked back in after a multi-year forbearance.    

The Biden Administration is touting rosy economic numbers – but most Americans don’t feel good about the economy even if their personal situation is all right. 

Now, you could say that commercial real estate is only a thing in certain cities, and most people don’t work at startups or for a striking union or as a journalist – all true.  Residential real estate obviously affects a lot of people, and there are a ton of Americans who would like to buy or sell a home but can’t do so because of elevated mortgage rates. 

Here’s the point - most Americans still feel that prices are too high and they are constantly under some sense of financial pressure.  And these are the good times. 

I’ve been an entrepreneur in flush times and in tough times.  I’m seeing tons of signs that tough times are around the bend. 

You operate differently in different periods.  In good times, you invest in growth.  In times of contraction, you batten down the hatches and streamline.  You make different kinds of bets.  And maybe, sometimes you settle for the smaller holiday party.  It feels to me that the latter kind of time is coming soon.    

What does this mean for our politics? 

Continuity will be a tough sell.  Someone – let’s say President Biden – running on how good things are will have a difficult time.  Particularly if things go from okay, which is where I think the economy is now, to a rough stretch. 

In my opinion, a lot of Democrats feel committed to Joe Biden out of a sense of fear and caution.  He’s at least familiar and comforting. 

But riding an 81-year old incumbent with a 39% approval rating and a message of “4 more years” may be the exact opposite of what the majority of Americans want to hear next year.  What seems like the safe bet may be the riskiest bet of all. 

---- 

Who could be a better bet for the Dems against Trump?  Check out Dean Phillips, a 54-year old Congressman from Minnesota whom I believe in. 

Election Day

Hello, I hope that your week is going well. 
 
Tuesday was a big Election Day – voters from around the country made their voices heard on issues big and small. 
 
Forward Party had a great showing with 5 new elected officials in Pennsylvania, Maryland and Connecticut! It’s a tremendous sign as to what we will be able to accomplish in 2024. 
 
Nationally, Democrats put up significant wins in Virginia, Kentucky and New Jersey – this has led some to think that Joe Biden is in great shape for 2024. 
 
The problem is that Joe Biden has singular qualities and weaknesses that voters are tuned into - primarily his age and his stewardship of the economy.  Voting for a young governor in Kentucky or a state rep in Virginia is a different thing than voting for an 81-year old incumbent President. 
 
Indeed, new polls came out this week saying that Trump is ahead in the swing states.  The drumbeat is consistent enough that a picture is starting to form. 
 
When I was running for President, I would often be asked about polls, which I would dismiss as missing the true energy and enthusiasm.  But when the voting started, the polls tended to be pretty accurate. 
 
I think the polls are accurate about Joe Biden’s standing; when I talk to Independent voters or young people about Joe, they often make a pained expression and shake their heads.  I don’t think betting that will change is the right approach. 
 
I’ve been supporting Dean Phillips as an alternative to Joe Biden.  Dean is what most Americans want: a sane, moderate 54-year old presidential candidate who will work to make things better.  I joke that Dean should change his name to Generic Democrat, because polls show that Trump loses to a generic Democrat by 8 points.
 
Why run an 81-year old with a 39% approval rating when you have a better choice standing right in front of you? 
 
Let’s take the right lessons from Election Day.  And work for better choices.

To check out Dean Phillips, click here.  To see what Forward is doing in your area, click here. 

2024

It’s less than one year until Election Day 2024 – and the calendar is coming up on us quickly.  The Forward Party is engaged with local candidates around the country this week, which is awesome. 
 
I get asked all of the time what I think will happen in 2024 in the presidential race.  Let’s take a look first at the Republicans, as the third debate takes place on Wednesday.  The 5 candidates who have qualified are Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie and Tim Scott, all debating in the shadow of Donald Trump.  Mike Pence dropped out last week, a sign of things to come. 
 
In aggregate polling, Donald Trump has a 46 point lead over Ron DeSantis, 59% to 13%. Nikki Haley is next at 7.5%.  She’s doing better in the early states but is still 40 points behind Trump.  Trump is the prohibitive favorite to be the Republican nominee as long as he’s walking around and eligible to run. 
 
Who would win between Trump and Biden in the general? 
 
Polls are roughly even.  Joe Biden’s chances of winning rose two weeks ago based on two things.  First, RFK Jr. left the Democratic primary and went Independent.  Polling consistently shows RFK Jr. in low double-digits and taking more from Donald Trump than Joe Biden in the general election; it’s why you’re going to see a lot of negative stories about RFK Jr. from the conservative press from now until Election Day.  In a close election, the 1 or 2 percentage points being sucked away from Trump could be significant. 
 
The second thing that you might have missed was Cornel West breaking up with the Green Party.  I thought Cornel West would take 1-3% as the Green Party candidate, mostly from Joe Biden.  Now, I don’t think he makes the ballot in more than a handful of states and will more or less be a non-factor (perhaps by design).  Each of these developments amounts to a 1 or 2 point swing to Biden. 
 
However, there are still ominous signs for Biden.  Recent polling shows Trump with a small lead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia.  The Biden campaign was so concerned that they spent millions of dollars on positive advertising in some of these states, a highly unusual and aggressive move this early in the cycle.  The ads didn’t seem to have any effect.  Apparently, “Bidenomics” is not a winning message.  Biden’s approval ratings are stuck between 39 and 42% and economic concerns are persistent with voters. 
 
Over two-thirds of voters are also concerned about Joe’s advanced age.  If you ask a random person about Joe Biden’s re-election bid, they are likely to simply shake their head and say, “He’s too old.”  Perhaps running an 81-year old with a 40% approval rate isn’t a winning formula. 
 
Last week a new candidate arrived on the scene making this very case – Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota.  Dean is a moderate Democrat who has been exhorting other Dems to run against Joe Biden out of concerns over his electability.  When no one else took on the challenge, Dean decided to run himself. 
 
I’m personally very bullish on Dean’s campaign and see him as our best chance to avoid a Biden vs. Trump rematch.  You can check out Dean’s campaign here.  I’ve donated and hope you consider doing so too. 
 
Most people will initially dismiss Dean, though there is reason to believe that he’ll be competitive.  The truth is we won’t really know until New Hampshire votes in January – Joe Biden will be competing as a write-in candidate there.  If Dean runs very strongly in New Hampshire, how will that impact other states?  What will the media response be?  It’s essentially a 3-month sprint.  If numbers are to be believed, Dean is speaking for the majority of voters, which bodes well for his growth trajectory. 
 
Barring a Dean Phillips insurgence, which would be truly epic, the truth is that both major parties are poised to field historically weak candidates.  A generic Republican – e.g., Nikki Haley - would, I believe, defeat Joe Biden.  A generic Democrat – one not saddled with doubts about age and vitality – would defeat Donald Trump. 
 
Can either party shake free of the inertia of a Trump – Biden rematch that most Americans don’t want?  Whichever party can do just that will almost certainly win; I am excited for the first poll that shows Dean Phillips defeating Trump by 8 points, simply by virtue of being a 54-year old moderate Democrat.  Winning doesn’t seem to be the top priority of either party anymore though, much as they might protest otherwise. 
 
Yet underneath the thin layer of conformity and careerism is the will of the American people, hungry for better options.  I’d love to see that hunger satisfied on either side.  We have 3 months to make it happen. 
 
To check out the Dean Phillips campaign, click here.  For the holidays I am offering to personalize and sign books to use as a gift for that special someone!  Click here and we will get them out by the holidays. 

Dean Phillips

The 2024 presidential field has a new contender – Dean Phillips, 3-term Democratic Congressman from Minnesota.   

Dean is 54, which makes him a full 26 years younger than Joe Biden and 22 years younger than Donald Trump.  After attending Brown University he got his MBA and ran a family business and then a gelato company – Talenti - that was bought by Unilever.  He ran for Congress in a district that hadn’t had a Democrat in almost 60 years.  His slogan was, “Everyone’s invited.” 

I first met Dean last year at an American Promise event that was about overturning Citizens United.  “I’m the only member of Congress who refuses to dial for dollars,” Dean said.  “I kind of thought you were here to pass laws, not fundraise.”  As you can imagine, I liked him immediately.  

Months later, Dean called me in part to relay his concerns about the Democratic primary, or lack thereof.  “I support Joe, but I feel like we are playing a very dangerous game in 2024 riding on his health.  One bad week and we hand the country to Trump.”  

He’s not alone in his concerns.  Nearly 70 percent of Democratic voters believe Biden is too old to serve a 2nd term, and 67 percent say they’d prefer another candidate.  

So why hasn’t there been a primary challenge with numbers like that, outside of Marianne Williamson, RFK Jr. (since turned Independent) and Cenk Uygur?  

The DNC has closed ranks behind President Biden. There won’t be any primary debates and South Carolina – which Joe won – was moved to first in the primary season. The word has gone out to prominent Dems like Gavin Newsom, Gretchen Whitmer, and JB Pritzker to wait until 2028.  And the press hasn’t treated previous challengers to Biden with any legitimacy – indeed, the press has taken turns attacking or ignoring anyone who has tried to interrupt Joe’s glide path.  

To Dean’s credit, his first choice was not to run.  He openly went around to other figures saying, “Someone more prominent than me should run against Joe, for the good of the country.”  Only when no one else bit did he really move toward taking the plunge.  “If he were 15 to 20 years younger it would be a no-brainer to nominate him, but considering his age it’s absurd we’re not promoting competition but trying to extinguish it.”  

Will Dean actually force a genuine competition?  

There are a number of reasons why I think Dean Phillips could do just that.  

First, candidates with a reason to run do better.  Dean is genuinely on a mission to provide the country a positive alternative to a Trump-Biden rematch that he views as disastrous.  He’s not someone who had this planned as a next step.  He’s intrinsically motivated and it will show. 

Second, he’s a good guy and a strong campaigner.  When people see him and hear him they’ll like him.  He likes other people too.  Believe it or not, that actually makes a difference.  

Third, he’s rich, with a net worth of $50 - $80 million.  He’ll have the resources to compete.  

Fourth, the press is bored.  Dean is getting mainstream press coverage like this Atlantic profile and I think that will continue.  

Fifth, it’s possible that Dean emboldens another major Democrat to join the primary, which would kickstart a genuine process.  Mission accomplished.  

Last, Dean is actually giving the American people what they want in a presidential candidate – a sane, moral 54-year old who is a real person.  How many people do you know who have wished for just that sort of figure to appear?  

Now, it’s going to be an uphill climb as every establishment Democrat has piled behind Joe even though they are nervous about his age in private.  There’s a hierarchy that is being upset and it’s not going to take it well.  But the mission is noble and has the potential to deliver us into a better future. 

I know Dean and admire him.  I’ve donated to his campaign.  You can donate here.   

Is it possible to improve upon the Trump – Biden rematch that so many of us fear is inevitable?  At least one person is staking his reputation on the answer being yes, and I hope for all of our sakes that he’s right.  I’ll be working to make it so. 

The Human-Centered Economy

Hello, I hope that you and yours are holding up in a difficult time for the world. 
 
This past week, I spoke on a panel about AI.  I was asked, “How do we build a prosperous economy for everyone in an era of Artificial Intelligence that can do a lot of work faster than most people can imagine?” 
 
This was actually the central theme of my presidential campaign in 2020.  If anything, the trends have picked up steam.  You can see the proportion of repetitive cognitive jobs – those most likely to be replaced by AI – already starting to decrease.  44% of U.S. jobs are either repetitive manual or repetitive cognitive and thus at least somewhat subject to automation. 

Let’s say that you agree this is a concern – indeed many parents are increasingly anxious about what field to suggest to their children as tasks that were viewed as extraordinarily secure – like coding for example – may be performed by AI in the not-so-distant future. 

I answered, “The economy is going to get more difficult and punitive for everyday Americans.  Only about 35% of the country is comprised of college graduates.  The other two-thirds are in industries like retail and manufacturing that have already seen disruption due to both automation and globalization.  The question is, how do we share the bounty of all of the value that AI will generate to assist in what will be a generational transition?” 

This will be familiar to many of you who followed my presidential campaign.  I’m still chasing the same problems I wrote about in my book “The War on Normal People.“

We went through a massive disruption during COVID.  The U.S. government printed and issued $5 trillion over 2020 and 2021 to keep states and cities and the economy afloat.  This led to inflation that we are still dealing with through higher interest rates that will in turn force a revaluation of many assets in the weeks ahead, particularly commercial real estate and housing. 

Many mistakenly equate the $5 trillion with stimulus checks.  $5 trillion is about $15,000 per American.  The average American got maybe $2,000 in stimulus checks, or less than 14% of that total.  Where did the rest go?  It went to the financial system, COVID infrastructure and treatment, large corporations like airlines and cruise ship companies, state and municipal budgets, the payroll protection program for small businesses and on and on. 

When people ask me about UBI, I refer them to the enhanced child tax credit of 2021, which lowered child poverty rates in the U.S. from about 11% to 5% and had positive effects on millions of families in terms of health, education, lack of domestic abuse and every other indicator.  We discontinued the enhanced child tax credit in 2022, and child poverty shot back up to 12%.  It worked, but soon fell prey to political dysfunction. 

I still have people in D.C. working on reviving the child tax credit – if you want to help them they’re at https://humanityforward.com/. 

I’m now convinced that we will never be able to address the economic and social challenges of AI unless we first overcome our political polarization – I wrote about this in Forward.  That’s why I started the Forward Party, which is now active in 48 states with tens of thousands of volunteers and dozens of affiliated elected officials.  This week we announced a merger with the South Carolina Independence Party, which will immediately give us ballot access and recognition in a key state.  The path to a human-centered economy will not occur through either of the current major parties, but only through a political realignment that makes solving our problems necessary to stay in power. 

To the question I was asked about AI, I responded, “Look, there are a few steps.  First, make the American political system rational and focused on actually solving real problems.  Second, channel our collective resources to get the boot off of people’s throats and move us toward a mindset of abundance not scarcity.  Our economy’s now $25 trillion, or $75k a head, which is enough to address extreme poverty, and AI could make abundance real.  Last, move the economy beyond capital efficiency – where we will have more and more trouble competing - toward things like caring for others, or arts and creativity.  In other words, make the economy work for us and measure it accordingly.  Our problem now is that our economy is growing but most people are not thriving in terms of wellbeing or ability to be excited about their future.” 

My questioner liked this.  He asked, “Okay, I understand that the stimulus checks were overblown in terms of inflation.  But how do you implement a whole new human-centered economy without it being inflationary?” 

I responded, “You’d want multiple currencies.  Imagine a currency for arts and creativity that you earn every time you produce a mural or perform at a public event.  And then another one for caregiving, nurturing and tutoring.  People who pursue these activities would earn a new currency that they could trade for goods or services.  You could create whole new economies and connections that encourage people to do things that many of them would prefer to do anyway, and the inflationary effect would be limited to whatever is redeemed in a particular period.  Accruing these new currencies could be something you’re proud of publicly in a way that you wouldn’t be with dollars.” 

Some people got very excited about this, as there were a lot of creatives in the crowd.  It is, in my opinion, one of the only ways to produce human flourishing as AI performs more and more work. 

This is a difficult time.  Even in very difficult times, it’s vital to imagine what a brighter future could be and how we get there.  Without that, how ever will we get there? 

This week on the podcast I sit down with futurist and founder of the X Prize Peter Diamandis to talk about the path to UBI, democracy reform and more.  For that conversation, click here.  To be part of the realignment of our politics around solutions like Ranked Choice Voting, join Forward Party here.  

Uncanceling the American Mind

This week on the podcast I interview Greg Lukianoff and Rikki Schlott on their new book, “The Canceling of the American Mind:  Cancel Culture Undermines Trust, Destroys Institutions, and Threatens Us All – But There is a Solution.”  Greg Lukianoff co-wrote “The Coddling of the American Mind” with Jonathan Haidt and leads a foundation while Rikki Schlott is a columnist for the New York Post. 

“The Coddling of the American Mind” described three great untruths that have been plaguing young people in recent times:

      1. The Untruth of Fragility:  What doesn’t kill you makes you weaker.
      2. The Untruth of Emotional Reasoning:  Always trust your feelings.
      3. The Untruth of Us Vs. Them:  Life is a battle between good people and evil people. 

To this, Greg and Rikki have added a new great untruth:

       4. The Untruth of Ad Hominem: Bad People Only Have Bad Opinions.  If you can show someone to be ‘bad’ by any measure, you don’t have to listen to them anymore. 

This has become an – unfortunately – popular way to attack arguments you might not like, by categorizing the speaker as representing the political opposition (e.g. “conservative” or “woke.”)  Associated to this are sometimes adverse professional and personal consequences to the undermined and canceled. 
 
Attempts to cancel individuals on college campuses have surged in recent years.  In 2020 the number of speaker disinvitations, attempts to fire professors, and other on-campus responses shot up to 1,500 from 500 in 2013.  There have been 946 attempts to get professors punished during the last 8 years, which have completely shifted the culture of being a professor. 
 
This isn’t restricted to campuses.  84% of Americans think it’s a problem that some Americans don’t speak freely in everyday situations due to fear of retaliation.  And 62% of Americans did not personally feel comfortable expressing their opinions in public.  The media, non-profits, corporations and even public health authorities are all subject to pressures to conform.  “Cancel Culture is happening at such a scale that historians will be studying it in fifty to a hundred years, much like we study the Red Scare and the Alien and Sedition Acts,” Greg and Rikki write. 

They go on, “In our all-consuming culture war, fighters have two methods of attack.  The first is going through the process of engagement and persuasion – and accepting the possibility that you might not succeed in convincing most people.  It’s a long and arduous road.”
 
“The second tactic is attacking your opponents on an ad hominem personal level – digging up things to discredit them, making them fear for their jobs, and ‘winning’ arguments simply by making too scared to say what they really think.  This latter route is much quicker.  Although it won’t actually change minds, you can surely intimidate enough people into pretending they agree with you.” 
 
So what can be done?  Greg and Rikki delve into solutions, from raising kids to be more nuanced in their thinking and treatment of others to reforming schools to reflect intellectual diversity and curiosity to keeping companies from becoming political environments.  But the essential message is to treat each other like human beings.  Indeed, Greg and Rikki detail some of the stories of people who had their lives upended by an accusation who suffer from it for years afterwards, well after most of the online mob have long since moved on.  On the other end of the social media avatar is a living, breathing human being with a family and a livelihood, which itself is a lesson worth remembering. 
 
For my interview of Greg and Rikki click here.  For their book “The Canceling of the American Mind” click here.  To get beyond political polarization check out Forward Party.  

War in Israel

It’s been a terrible time in the world as Hamas viciously attacked Israel this weekend killing hundreds of civilians in brutal fashion. Watching the videos unfold was nightmarish, a grotesque display of violence and callous indifference to human life.

The conflict will only grow as Hamas has taken over a hundred hostages and Israel has mobilized hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists in preparation for a ground operation. The U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier to the region in order to support Israel and discourage other hostile actors.

Hamas’s attack came on the fiftieth anniversary of the Yom Kippur War and was clearly planned for months. That conflict decades ago resulted in tens of thousands of casualties and wounded in less than 3 weeks.

I fear that this conflict will extend well past that length of time and incur even greater human cost.

President Joe Biden gave an impassioned speech about America’s continued commitment to Israel. At the same time, House Republicans are engaged in a contest to determine the next Speaker and key military appointments – including two picks for the Joint Chiefs and officers leading US forces in the Middle East – are stalled in the Senate for political reasons. American institutions are sputtering and our dysfunction may hurt our ability to help a close ally in its time of need.

Lost in the shuffle right now are continued aid to Ukraine and making sure the government can pay its bills in mid-November, priorities that seemed very serious before the prospect of war in the Middle East descended and put everything in a different perspective.

The human suffering is devastating. I know people who are close to the conflict and the personal toll is clear and heartbreaking. Parents looking for family members and frantic calls that sometimes go unanswered. The comparison has been made between this attack and 9/11 22 years ago, and I think the comparison is apt; the unthinkable has been made real and the world is changed in a way that will never again be the same.

Prayers for the families affected and a safe journey home for those who are now apart from their loved ones,

American Dysfunction

This week, history was made as Kevin McCarthy was ousted as Speaker of the House. He was voted out by a combination of 8 conservative Republicans and all Democrats at a count of 216 – 210. No Speaker has ever been removed before.

As usual, there is a Republican point-of-view, a Democratic point-of-view, and then the reality the rest of us live in.  From the Republican point-of-view, this is a small clutch of hardliners using their leverage to oust a Speaker who was insufficiently ideological for doing such things as funding the government’s continued operations.  From the Democratic point-of-view, this is casting out a political opponent and exposing the Republican Party as incapable of holding a true majority. 

For the rest of us – it’s wondering what it means and what happens next.   

Again, this has never happened before.  Anyone who says they know what happens next is simply guessing. 

Here’s the math – there are 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the House (2 seats are presently vacant).  A majority has to vote in a Speaker – so 217 votes.  That means that any Republican candidate can only afford to lose 4 votes. 

It took Kevin McCarthy 15 ballots and four days to get elected and he was nearly unopposed.  How will it go this time?  It’s hard to imagine any Republican getting to near-unanimity in today’s Republican caucus.  We could be in for many days of political spectacle. 

It’s possible that if no one can get to 217, Democrats extend a lifeline to a particular candidate to get him or her over the hump.  That hasn’t been in the cards – and would obviously be a turnoff to some Republicans – but it might be the only resolution if the process drags on long enough. 

The new deadline is November 17th, when the government again runs out of money.  We need a Speaker who can pass a spending resolution by then – bearing in mind that passing a spending resolution is what got Kevin McCarthy booted.  Investors now are beginning to factor in political risk into their evaluations of America’s ability to meet its obligations. 

I’ve been asked what this means for most Americans.  We don’t have a functioning legislature until further notice – the House of Representatives doesn’t have an organized majority. It means that American institutions continue to run aground in whole new ways that seem implausible before the fact and then obvious afterwards.  For those hoping our leaders find common ground and bridge the divide, this is a powerful signal to the opposite, that political incentives are now more powerful than governing incentives.  It also means a more uncertain business environment. 

There are many people celebrating Kevin McCarthy’s fall because they didn’t like Kevin McCarthy.  I’m not a fan of his – but I remain a big fan of his country.  His country deserves better leadership than this.  I think Democrats made a mistake in siding with his ousters, even if it seems like a short-term political win by making Republicans look incoherent.  Because it also makes America look – accurately - polarized and dysfunctional. 

Perhaps the House will elect a new leader and business will continue on as usual in a matter of days.  It’s more likely though that those who toppled McCarthy have developed an appetite for power, even negative power.  The real question is if a Speaker can be booted by 8 extremists and his political opponents, who will be safe in the same seat? 

If you can’t even take the basics for granted anymore, that’s a frightening place to be. 

To join Forward to provide a new pathway in our politics and change the incentives, click here.  We are needed more than ever. 

What Has Zach Been Up To?

Hello, I hope that you’re having a great week!  I spent last week at the American Democracy Summit in LA, which was a blast with tons of folks from Forward. 
 
Many of you know my campaign manager Zach Graumann, who wrote the book Longshot about the presidential campaign.  Prior to that, Zach worked on Wall Street and started a nonprofit for underprivileged kids called SuitUp. 

“I realized the limitations of the non-profit space,” Zach said.  “I mean, they do great work.  But I had a hard time shaking the feeling that the problems are still there.”  This misgiving was amplified by his day job advising philanthropists on how best to give to charity.  “Even people with incredible wealth struggle to figure out how to give enough to make progress on a particular problem.” 
 
He also noticed that companies saw philanthropy as an add-on.  “A lot of the time, a company will give to a cause or an organization, but then spend more money telling the public about the nice thing they did.”  They also had a tough time engaging their employees; it’s one reason why his organization, SuitUp grew so fast:  “We offered high-quality volunteering opportunities to employees, which was unusual for a lot of them.” 
 
Meanwhile, for individuals who want to find a way to help, non-profits aren’t always set up to receive their efforts.  “For some orgs, like a soup kitchen, the way you help out is very straightforward.  But a lot of them don’t really know what to do with you.  And if you show up once, you don’t show up again.  That’s why only one-quarter of people volunteer each year, even though three-quarters of people say we want to.” 
 
Zach is a lot like me, in that he is always looking to both help people and solve a worthwhile problem – it’s why we connected in 2020.  Now, he’s started a company to address all of these problems:  Samarity.  
 
What is Samarity?  In Zach’s words, “Samarity is a way to channel more corporate dollars to charities by giving them something they want – consumer intelligence.  Companies right now spend billions a year on market research.  You know who knows a lot about us?  We do.  And would we share some of that information to benefit our favorite charities?  Imagine if you could just fill out a survey and your favorite charity gets between $1 and $5, maybe more.” 
 
Samarity is now piloting this with 100 non-profits.  “The non-profit sends out a survey to their supporters, and we pay them for each response.  We then turn around and package the insights – anonymized – to corporations.  Some of our non-profits are already receiving thousands of dollars for doing something that a lot of them want to do anyway; the great thing is that the non-profit can ask any questions it wants to so they actually get better information about their own supporters.  Companies win because they get better consumer insight more cost-effectively.  And non-profit supporters win because they get to help their favorite cause with just a little bit of their time.” 
 
This first product is just the beginning.  “We want a world where anytime someone does something good - volunteers, tutors a kid, does something positive – they get recognized and rewarded.  Right now it’s filling out a survey, but eventually it might be helping your neighbor.”  I love how Samarity is trying to solve a big problem in a way that benefits everyone.  Its success would drive millions of dollars to non-profits and maybe move us one step closer to an economy that is centered on people doing good. 
 
For my interview with Zach click here.  To get involved with what Zach is building, you can email their team at hello@samarity.com.  You can also sign-up any nonprofit you love here, so they can start earning new donations.  Lastly, you can even take a quick survey yourself to unlock some charity donations here if you want to do something good today. 😃  Most importantly, Zach got married this summer so feel free to congratulate him!    

The Identity Trap

Hello, I hope all is great on your end!  I visited Pittsburgh and Houston this week for Forward, including endorsing a local candidate and visiting a night market in Houston.  I also continued doing interviews for my new novel “The Last Election” with Stephen Marche, which we’ve been getting great feedback on. 

This week on the podcast I interview professor and writer for the Atlantic Yascha Mounk on his new book, “The Identity Trap: A Story of Ideas and Power In Our Time.”  For those of you who have been following me for a while, Yascha’s book tackles similar ideas as John McWhorter’s “Woke Racism” and Tim Urban’s “What’s Our Problem?” both of whom I’ve had on the podcast.  
 
Yascha describes what he calls “The Identity Synthesis,” a worldview that puts race, gender and sexual orientation above other considerations. “In this view, even situations that seemingly have nothing to do with identity, like a run-of-the-mill dispute between two friends, need to be analyzed through the lens of the relative social power each of them enjoys by virtue of the respective identity groups to which they belong.  Because of this focus on identity as a way of interpreting social reality, parts of the left are now more likely to invoke new concepts like ‘microaggressions’ and ‘implicit bias’ than they are to invoke older concepts like social class.”

The recommendation of the identity synthesis is to treat people differently based on which group they belong to.  “Because neutral rules like nondiscrimination laws are supposedly insufficient to make a difference, the advocates of the identity synthesis insist that we need social norms and public policies that explicitly make how the state treats its citizens— and how we all treat each other— depend on the identity group to which they belong.”  
 
Yascha describes this approach as very alluring and often well-intended.  “The identity synthesis calls attention to real injustices. It gives people who feel marginalized or mistreated a language in which to express their experiences. And it affords its followers the sense of being part of a grand historical movement that will make the world a better place. All of this helps to explain why it is so alluring, especially to the young and idealistic.” 
 
Unfortunately, Yascha writes that the identity synthesis will “ultimately prove counterproductive . . . it undermines progress toward genuine equality between members of different groups. In the process, it also subverts other goals we all have reasons to care about, like the stability of diverse democracies. Despite its allure, the identity synthesis turns out to be a trap.”  
 
He goes on:  “The identity synthesis is a political trap, making it harder to sustain diverse societies whose citizens trust and respect each other.  It is also a personal trap, one that makes misleading promises about how to gain the sense of belonging and social recognition that most humans naturally seek,” Yascha writes.  “Progressive separatism is a dead end.  Its vision of the future is neither realistic nor attractive.  And partial success – a world in which whites do come to define themselves by their ethnic identity yet fail to dismantle the advantages that have historically flowed from it – may transport us into the worst of all possible timelines.”  In other words, we should be very careful about getting everyone in America to think of themselves along racial lines, because the results could be disastrous. 
 
So what’s a better approach?  According to Yascha, numerous studies have shown that intergroup interaction can diminish bias if a number of elements are in place: 

1. Equal status.  Members of different groups are regarded as in the same boat, as for example teammates or colleagues. 

2. Common goals.  The groups have a goal in common, such as a project or winning a competition.  

3. Intergroup cooperation.  Members of different groups work together, as in passing the ball to each other or dividing up responsibilities.  

4. Support from authorities and customs.  Members are encouraged to get along by the leadership, such as a supervisor or coach or authority figure.  

In these environments, people start to feel better about people from different groups.  Well-run companies, teams or military units are examples of places where bias diminishes because you work alongside someone every day toward a common goal.  
 
These are the kinds of organizing principles that give us a better chance as a society.  Yascha writes of universalist goals, e.g., “everyone should be treated fairly, equally and free of discrimination” as the kind of unifying message that bore real results during the Civil Rights Movement, even if the progress hasn’t been as complete as many would like.  
 
I agree with Yascha on making universal appeals.  When I ran for President, I talked about giving everyone a certain amount of money as a foundation.  Poverty afflicts every community.  I thought that it was the kind of unifying vision that would give us a chance at a better future.  
 
Can we form common, unifying goals that span our differences, including the political divide that threatens to tear our society apart?  The future of the country rests on our answering that question positively by bringing different groups together.  We’re all American, whatever our background.  Let’s start there.  
 
For Yascha’s book “The Identity Trap” click here and for my interview with him click here.  To check out what Forward is doing to overcome divisions in your area, click here.

Launch Week

Hello, I hope that all has been great!  

I had a busy week launching “The Last Election,” the new novel I wrote with Stephen Marche about a campaign manager of an independent presidential candidate, a journalist with a big story and how American democracy’s last days unfold. 

First I went down to D.C. for a book talk, a launch party and a flurry of press.  Then I came back to New York for another set of events and interviews.  CBS, CNN, ABC, FOX, TMZ – it’s been quite the media tour.  

The best part has been getting feedback from people who have already read the book.  Some of my favorite quotes:  

“I couldn’t put it down.” 

“It scared me, but in a way that made me feel more prepared.”  

“I was surprised by it, in a very good way.” 

“I do politics for a living and I learned a lot.”  

It’s also heartwarming to see so many people come out to support the book.  Having your Mom at your book launch party is a wonderful feeling.

I’ve written 3 non-fiction books and each of them represented years of work.  This has been different on several levels because it’s a story with a message.  It’s also my first collaboration, which I enjoyed more than I’d expected.   

I’ll admit that my mind has started to move to what could happen next in the world depicted in “The Last Election,” so close to our own.  Could we visit these characters again?  I’d like to, and I have some ideas for what happens next.  Maybe there's room for optimism.  

I’m excited to have “The Last Election” out in the world – get your copy today!  Click here for an excerpt.  And thank you to those of you who have bought the book or spread the word – it means the world to me.