Today is my Birthday!

Hello all,

Thank you for your support. Today is my birthday.

When I told someone that I was turning 47 today they said, “Whoa, that’s older than I thought you were!” I took it as a compliment.

When I was a kid I did not like my birthdays at all. I didn’t have many friends – I was shy and bookish. My Mom would try and do something for my birthday, like bring me a cake, but it always felt like our little celebration fell short. I still definitely appreciate my Mom for trying.

This sense of deficiency was heightened by the fact that my older brother was more social and seemed to have better parties.

As an adult I became comfortable either ignoring it or having a celebration I’d enjoy. I got friends together for my 30th and 40th.

In 2020, I celebrated my birthday with hundreds of people in Iowa while campaigning for President. What a contrast with my childhood.

This year, in 2022, I’ll be celebrating quietly with my family. Part of that is covid but part of it is by design; I am out and about so much now that a quiet night with Evelyn and the boys seems like the right way to mark the occasion.

I’m so fortunate to be able to celebrate my birthday today with my family but also with so many people sending well-wishes from around the world – thank you!

To the extent you’d like to help me celebrate, please do something kind for someone in your life. That would make me happy.

If you’d like, you can also make a donation to the Forward Party. That would mean a lot to me! We are making amazing progress each day. It’s not every day that you kick off a new political movement.

I’m excited for what the year will bring. Who knows, maybe by next year the pandemic will be over! But in any case, I’ll be doing my best to appreciate every day from now until then, and I hope you will too.

Yours gratefully,

- Andrew

P.S. Today's new podcast episode with Zach is out, we discuss Bernie's treatment by the DNC, school closures, and our experiences with identity. It's one of our best convos - you can check it out here.

3 Predictions for 2022

Hello and Happy 2022! I hope the New Year is off to a great start!

This week on the podcast I make a few predictions for 2022. You can listen to an extended convo with Zach about them here.

The first is that I believe inflation will persist well into the New Year. There are a few reasons for this. First, people in industry are making pricing decisions on a bit of a lag, and some of those decisions are only just now incorporating higher prices for supplies and the like. Second, the environment is now less punitive for price increases, as if other firms in your industry are raising prices you can do so too with limited pushback from customers. Third, a lot of businesses are seeing higher labor costs, which they will want to pass along.

This will likely mean inflation sticks around in significant measure and puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise rates – which have been aberrantly low for over a decade now. This in turn could have negative repercussions for the stock market. We are now in something of a supercycle – 13 years and counting – that is closer to the end than the beginning.

I’ve been calling this environment “Growflation” – as you will see some continued economic growth hand-in-hand with inflation. I don’t believe the inflation we are seeing is transitory or will pass quickly.

My second prediction is going to sound like a cheat – a 3rd party contender for the presidency will announce their bid this year.

4 years ago, I announced I was running for President. I figured that I could use the time to get my name and message out. There was no purpose in waiting. It turns out that the energy and interest in a presidential run is pretty low more than 2 years in advance. But it likely was the right move because we learned a lot and developed the beginning of a following throughout the year. It’s somewhat easier to campaign in a vacuum.

I believe that someone else will have the same consideration set and get a jump on it, particularly if they don’t currently hold elected office. The most likely major party nominees right now are set to be Biden and Trump, both of whom have 50%+ of Americans against their runs, so there will be real interest in a different figure and voice.

Relatedly, the energy around 2024 will surge after the mid-terms in November, so enjoy the year while you can.

My third prediction is that this will be the final year of the pandemic. I know. It’s hard to envision given that omicron right now is sweeping the nation.

Here’s why. The average duration of a pandemic is three years. It’s tough to fathom, but we are about to begin our third year of Covid. If this pandemic holds to form this will be the final year.

Omicron right now is showing signs of being a highly contagious but milder variant. This suggests that most everyone will be exposed over time, which will lead to herd immunity.

Finally, the public attitude toward the pandemic is exhaustion. Most people are at their wit’s end and will have little appetite for anything other than personal common sense measures beyond this year.

So there you have it: Inflation, a 3rd party candidate and an end to the pandemic. If you want to hear Zach’s predictions and more on mine, you can check out the podcast here.

Happy 2022 – let’s make it a year to remember!!

- Andrew

The Next January 6th

Photo courtesy of Blink O'fanaye

A year ago today, our country was shocked and horrified by the insurrection attempt on our nation’s Capitol.  The scenes were unthinkable – crowds surging through doors and windows looking for legislators with violent, deadly, intent.  

I have friends among those members of Congress, some of whom I texted.  One texted me back one word:  “Terrifying.”  At least five people died in connection with the insurrection and dozens of police officers were injured.  Four officers took their own lives in the months afterwards. As bad as it was, it could have been far worse if not for the heroism of Eugene Goodman and other Capitol officers. 

There was a brief moment afterwards when it seemed that our political leaders would coalesce in response to the horror.  But the polarization is too deep.  Only a bare handful of Republicans voted to impeach Donald Trump – those that did faced death threats -and the insurrection has been recast by some as a civil protest. 

This spasm of anger and terror was not a singular event.  We had been building toward the insurrection, or something like it, for years.  And instead of a fever that broke, the sickness is continuing. 

People are now waking up to the seriousness of the rift in our nation.  Journalists are taking the possibility of a Civil War more seriously.  Commentators make eloquent pleas to safeguard voting rights.  Appeal to our civility.  Improve our rhetoric.  Address disinformation. 

None of these things is enough, even if they were happening, which they aren’t. 

The reality is that we are slumping toward a recurrence of the insurrection.  No one is sure what the catalyst will be.  But we all sense that the tension is not dissipating as attitudes continue to harden. 

I won’t pretend that there is a measure that can cure us of our ills.  I expect that things will get rough and tumultuous in the days ahead.  But I am confident that a few things would help for real. 

The first is a shift in political incentives away from the extremes.  Right now 10% of Americans effectively elect 83% of representatives due to closed party primaries and safe seats.  If you’re in Congress, you find yourself placating the most hyperpartisan and extreme in your district rather than the general public.  Shifting to non-partisan open primaries and ranked choice voting would reward moderate candidates and improve the incentives of officeholders.  This can happen via ballot initiative in half of the states and via state legislatures in the others. 

Second is to move on from the duopoly.  In a two-sided political system, polarization will inevitably rise.  Today, 42% of each party regards their opponents as mortal enemies; they will thus accept all sorts of failings in their own leaders as better than the alternative.  A record 62% of Americans want to move on from the duopoly.  A genuinely multi-party system will sustainably improve the dynamic.  The shift to open primaries and ranked choice voting would allow new parties to emerge, eventually perhaps leading to multi-member districts. 

Last, those in power should rush to address the problems that are growing more serious around us every day.  The enhanced child tax credit brought millions of kids out of poverty.  Poverty is a solvable problem.  Yet even when poverty is briefly alleviated for millions the solution is taken away.  Our leaders respond to their own interests while people and communities struggle.  In that environment, terrible messages will find a willing audience. 

I had friends nearly lose their lives a year ago today.  January 6th, 2021 was both a horrifying chapter in our country’s history and a sign of things to come.  Our country requires a wholesale political transformation beyond the imagination of most of our leaders.  The question is whether we are willing to put aside the empty appeals and do the work required to disrupt and upgrade our current political system, or will the unthinkable scenes continue.  

Happy New Year’s!

Hello and Happy New Year's! We have a New Year’s Eve livestream coming up that we’d love for you to join us for. To join, you just need to be a founding member of the Forward Party. If you've already donated, you're all set and we'll send you the link tomorrow. If not, donate $1 today to show your support and we'll add you to the invite list!

I confess to not loving New Year’s Eve - you feel like you’re supposed to do something, but it’s often tough to find the right event or party. And that’s in a normal year.

It's been an eventful 2021. We started the Forward Party in early October. Starting something new and big is an act of positivity and optimism. You need people to see the possibility of a better future and a new dynamic.

The best people showed up. THE BEST. I’ve met hundreds of you on the road and the people drawn to Forward are truly special. You are extraordinary.

I liken Forward in 2021 to starting a new company during a recession. It seems tough and adverse. But the strongest firms emerge from difficult times. That’s what it feels like we are building now, a movement comprised of the most kick-ass people around in a time of urgent need.

People are giving up. Our country is descending into polarization and dysfunction. But it’s at times like these that real change becomes possible. Structural change that can set us on a better path.

I’ve been invigorated by the first stage of the Forward Party – thousands of volunteers and supporters raising their hands and saying that we can deliver real change for the American people. It’s wonderful seeing the org take form and develop. We are on the cusp of building something that will change the course of history.

None of it would be possible without you. Thank you.

Millions are waiting to see what we will do. Let’s show them what is still possible in America.

Goodbye 2021 and welcome 2022 – this year will be epic! We have races to win, candidates to elevate, and reforms to successfully champion. I can see as clear as day what we will be celebrating 12 months from now if we work to our potential.

Pumped for the year ahead with you,

- Andrew

Right now is the perfect time to contribute to the Forward Party to fix our broken politics – donate $1 today to let people know that we can do better than this! And Happy New Year!!

Happy Holidays!

Happy Holidays to you and yours!  I hope that you are primed to celebrate among family and friends.  

This has always been a special time for me.  When I was a kid, I would thrill to the first Christmas lights going up on our street.  My parents never went that far, but we always had a tree, stockings and presents to open Christmas morning. 

When I was young I loved toys.  I remember one year lobbying my parents trying to open my presents early.  My Dad was indifferent.  My Mom tried to resist, but she got tired of hearing me complain and relented.  I opened the biggest box.  It was a Star Wars toy, Boba Fett’s starship.  I was happy with the present, but then on Christmas morning I was disappointed that I had already opened my best gift the day before.  From then on, I said that I’d wait until the morning of. 

Evelyn and I now are trying to recreate that sense of celebration and specialness for Christopher and Damian.  We want them to know that they are loved no matter what, and that there is always a place for them to call home and a family that will come together with them with warmth and joy.  

It’s up to us to fill our homes with that sense of belonging.  We can’t control a lot of what is going on outside in the world.  But we can control the way we approach these days, the memories we help create for our families, and the feeling that our loved ones get when they join us or reach out to us.

I happened to notice that Disney+ has a new series based on Boba Fett coming soon.  I may try and get my kids to watch it and tell them about how Dad played with that toy when he was their age.  I’ll tell them how their grandparents always made sure to celebrate this time of year, and how they should appreciate grandma and grandpa.  But more than anything else I just want to give them that feeling that I had as a kid.  I know if they have it, they’ll pass it on.  

John McWhorter and ‘Woke Racism’

Hello, and I hope the holidays are going great for you and yours!

In late October, I was on a panel with Columbia linguistics professor John McWhorter on Bill Maher’s show in Los Angeles. I was impressed with John both during the show and backstage, and bought his book ‘Woke Racism’ immediately afterwards.

John’s book is about how a belief system – battling racial power differentials between whites and blacks – has become the dominant culture in much of media and academia, and how this is not actually helping black people who are struggling with very real issues. In particular, John calls out the bullying and, in some cases, firing of people who have been accused of a racially insensitive statement or action. He argues that the fixation on statements and attitudes does little to advance real policies that would benefit black people, such as ending the war on drugs or investing in quality reading instruction early on.

John also argues that many people are now pushed into a culture of fear of being called a racist, which has now led to many being afraid to express themselves lest they be attacked on social media or elsewhere. John finds this to be illiberal and counterproductive.

I enjoyed John’s book a great deal and thought it made a very important and compelling case. John graciously agreed to appear on my podcast, and our conversation was one of my favorites to date. He talks about how this belief system has become powerful, its internal contradictions, how it actually is hurting black people and much more. You can see it here.

There are very real inequities in American life. I made the case for giving everyone $1,000 a month during my presidential campaign, which I thought would help those with the least the most. John argues for other solutions that I agree with, such as broad vocational training.

Perhaps that’s what I liked most about John – he’s about solutions to the real problems we see around us. Let’s fix the problems as quickly as possible, which includes doing away with a culture of attacking other people as being somehow less worthwhile than we are.


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Right now is the perfect time to contribute to the Forward Party to invest in real solutions – donate $5 today to let people know that we can do better than this! And Happy Holidays!

The End of Build Back Better

On Sunday the news came out that Joe Manchin would not support the Democrats’ Build Back Better bill. “I am a no on this legislation.” He made the announcement on Fox, after refusing to take a phone call from the White House.

I found this to be awful news on its face, largely because of my enthusiasm for the child tax credit, which I wrote about last week. This all but guarantees that 62 million Americans won’t get their check in January, and jeopardizes it for the months afterwards. The most successful anti-poverty program in years might be discontinued in less than a year after lifting 3.8 million children out of poverty – many families will slide back into difficult circumstances.

It’s my hope that the enhanced Child Tax Credit is brought back to the floor as soon as the Senate comes back in January – the best case scenario is that it passes in some form and is back in February. The team at Humanity Forward will be working non-stop to make this happen.

But this episode also indicates that the dysfunction within the Democratic Party is even higher than I would have thought.

Joe Biden’s strength is meant to be his relationships on Capitol Hill. Joe Biden and Joe Manchin were colleagues in the Senate for decades as Democrats. They worked together countless times. They had a call last week that was meant to usher Build Back Better forward after months of negotiation.

Whatever happened, the meeting didn’t have the desired effect. After Manchin’s announcement on Fox, the Biden White House issued a public statement accusing Joe Manchin of going back on his word and said that he should change his mind again.

The Biden White House’s statement struck me as counterproductive – if you need a guy to come back to the table, characterizing him as dishonest publicly doesn’t seem like the right approach, regardless of what you might feel. Keep in mind that Trump won West Virginia by 39 points, so Manchin is in a position where the politics are complicated at best.

Joe Manchin said on Monday, “It’s staff driven” of the White House on a radio interview, which could easily be seen as a dig at the President.

Again, these guys were colleagues for years. Massive legislation was proposed along party lines via reconciliation because bipartisanship is nearly nonexistent. That legislation is on life support –at best - because the Democrats didn’t have the unanimity they needed. Families home for the holidays are unsure of whether the check they just received in December was the last.

I hope that the Child Tax Credit emerges again early next year and will be doing all I can to assist. But it’s clear to all that a new dynamic is necessary in Washington D.C. The people don’t care so much as to who said what in what meeting. They just want help that isn’t tied to the back and forth of politics in the Beltway. That, right now, is too much to ask.

Right now is the perfect time to contribute to the Forward Party to fix our broken politics – donate $5 today to let people know that we can do better than this! And Happy Holidays!

The Child Tax Credit

Hello, I hope that the holiday season is going great!

The Child Tax Credit has been in the news this week, for excellent reason. If there’s one thing that everyone agrees on as a public policy triumph from the past year it has been the enhanced Child Tax Credit. It’s lifted 3.8 million children out of poverty and improved the lives of 62 million Americans directly, not counting the millions more who work at day care centers, groceries and small businesses who have benefited from the buying power in the hands of families. You might be one of these families.

I’m incredibly proud of the role that Humanity Forward played in both the relief checks and the child tax credit – I personally lobbied more than 60 members of Congress in 2020 and our organization spent millions helping to make the case.

I had hoped that Congress – with the backing of 448 economists – would make the Child Tax Credit permanent. But I was pleased that at a minimum it was extended for a year in the approved Build Back Better bill, particularly because I figured it would be very difficult to discontinue after that period.

Now, the package is stalling in the Senate, and if the bill isn’t approved by December 28th, it is likely that the January child tax credit will be delayed or missed. This is upsetting – imagine tens of millions of families around the country of relatively modest means not getting support that they have benefited from and relied upon for months.

If you keep up with the goings-on in Washington D.C,, there is one key person in whether this bill passes, when and in what form – West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin.

Joe has a different set of political considerations than most any other Democrat. Trump won his state by 39 points. While West Virginia has the 6th highest poverty rate in the country, the politics are complicated. There is a lot of value to Joe in having a point-of-view distinct from the Democratic Party. Joe has openly talked about leaving the party if he’s not wanted, and the fact is that the (D) next to his name may not be a major boost for him electorally. It’s also one big reason why you don’t see many attacks on Joe Manchin from other Democrats – they know they’re fortunate to have a Democratic Senator at all from West Virginia.

It’s also true that Democrats were lucky to have even 50 senators – they came within 15,000 Georgia voters of having only 49 and Mitch McConnell as speaker.

Even when Washington D.C. does something wonderful that improves millions of lives, it runs aground of institutional dysfunction.

How do I mean? The Child Tax Credit right now is a victim of polarization. It is built into a larger Democratic package that no Republican will vote for. If it were a separate bill, a number of Republican Senators would vote for it – the approval rating of the enhanced Child Tax Credit is over 70% in some polls including a majority of Republicans, and Mitt Romney in particular has championed a version of it.

In a more rational system, a handful of Republicans would make common cause with Democrats and renew the Child Tax Credit to ensure no missed payment while the other parts of the bill get hashed out. But that’s not the system that we have. We have a two-party system that is so divided that any kind of cross-party collaboration is nearly unthinkable.

It’s an infuriating shame. Millions of children lifted out of poverty in a way that’s widely popular, and our country’s dysfunction is so deep that it may not last. Can you imagine being a part of a body of leaders that could make such a profound difference for so many families and not taking action? Politics is overriding all else. Millions of families around the country may not know why they don’t get a check in 4 weeks. But they’ll miss it. We all will, just as we miss being a country that does the right thing for its people regardless of party or partisan politics.

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Right now is the perfect time to contribute to the Forward Party to fix our broken politics – donate $5 today to let people know that we can do better than this. Happy Holidays!

Civil War in 2024?

Recently there have been a couple pieces – that are excellent – that believe that we may be in for the effective end of American democracy in 2024 through some combination of a contested or stolen election, civil unrest, and a transition to an autocracy under Trump. Robert Kagan wrote a very cogent piece in the Washington Post making this case. Barton Gellman wrote a cover story in the Atlantic this past week. And Bill Maher put out a widely circulated video.

Here is the argument – Trump has spent months undermining people’s confidence in election results. 55% of Republicans think that the election was stolen. Numerous red states have been passing laws putting the authority of certifying the vote in the hands of the state legislators as opposed to state officials. A number of state officials who certified Biden’s victory have resigned. Kevin McCarthy will likely be the House Majority leader. In 2024, Trump will either get enough votes to win, or it will be close enough where Republicans will simply certify the win, leading to protests and widespread political violence.

Is this realistic? Well, the backdrop is certainly there. Political stress is presently at Civil War levels according to Peter Turchin:

In this context, the January 6th insurrection isn’t a culmination or a one-time event but a sign of things to come.

It’s typically up to the media to announce and certify election night results. At this point, only 15% of Republicans say they have high trust in media. For Democrats it’s 69%. For Independents it’s 36%. One can easily imagine various right-leaning media outlets at least expressing ambivalence about whether a result had been reached, but given these numbers people could disbelieve regardless of the media treatment.

First, let’s stipulate that Trump is running and will likely become the Republican nominee. He’s already raised well over $100 million and has 65% approval among the primary electorate. His strongest potential opponents – Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley - will defer to him and allow him to run opposed only by folks like Chris Christie and Mike Pence. Trump will announce shortly after the midterms next year and roll the field.

Who will his Democratic opponent be? The most likely option is Joe Biden, though Joe will be 81, almost 82 on Election Day 2024. The other major choice is Kamala Harris, who is polling 6 points worse than Joe. Or they submit it to a primary and some new figure emerges.

The temptation for the Democrats will be to run Joe again. They don’t want a fractious primary that makes them seem divided. Joe will be the incumbent who defeated Trump once.

One thing that many don’t understand is that Joe’s victory in 2020 was razor-thin; 44,000 votes in 3 states – Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia – decided the race. Joe’s massive popular vote win was driven up in blue states like New York and California, and that margin is irrelevant. Recent polling had Trump up by 8 in Arizona, 10 in Wisconsin and 3 in Georgia.

Joe will also likely be saddled with a Republican Congress after 2022. The in-power party traditionally loses 10 -15 seats in off-cycle elections. Right now the Democratic majority is only 5 seats, likely to be reduced by redistricting. Note also that Democrats surprisingly lost 13 seats against Trump in 2020, in what they were hoping was a wave election. Betting markets have the Republicans retaking the majority in the House in 2022 as a 74% likelihood.

I recently spoke to a political operative who regularly conducts focus groups with Democratic voters. Voters said that they saw Joe as a ‘bridge’ candidate or President – using Joe’s own words. But when they were asked who should run for President after Joe, they were unable to say. No one really knows who or what Joe is a bridge to.

The Democrats are in a tough spot for 2024. Their President will be almost 82. People are not excited about the Vice President who was meant to embody the future of the party. No one is sure what comes next.

When someone asks me what I think will happen, I think the Dems will run Joe again, health permitting. I also think that’s a mistake. He will, simply put, seem like the physical embodiment of an aging and failing establishment. His health and age will be a nonstop talking point. Watching him campaign will be difficult.

This week on the podcast, Zach and I talk about the likely figures Democrats could call upon in 2024 to face Trump – Joe, Kamala, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar. In this day and age, I think that anyone who feels like Washington D.C. establishment will probably lose to Trump. I suggest that the best way for Democrats to defeat Trump would be to enlist someone from outside their comfort zone who feels like an Independent – someone like Mark Cuban – who would soak up some of Trump’s anti-establishment energy. Dems could also consider enlisting a moderate Republican Romney-type in a unity ticket against Trump.

These seem like dramatic moves. But they are precisely the kind of moves that Democrats should be considering if they are serious about avoiding a Trump victory in 2024. You already lost to him once in part by anointing Hillary Clinton in 2016. Business as usual by the Democrats could lead to catastrophe in 2024.

Democracy is in for a massive challenge in 2024. Will we be up for it? It starts with sizing up the seriousness of the threat and the need to approach things differently than we have in the past.

When the Economy Itself is Political

Hello, I hope that you had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday! Evelyn and I spent it with family and friends eating turkey and pumpkin pie.

This week on the Forward Podcast I sit down with one of my favorite journalists, Derek Thompson who writes about economics and technology for the Atlantic. He also has a brand new podcast called “Plain English.”

I asked Derek a simple question: “What is going on with the economy?” We discuss the growth numbers, people leaving their jobs/the Great Resignation, remote work, inflation and much more.

One turn of the conversation in particular troubled me and blew my mind: the recent Michigan consumer confidence survey showed an extreme difference between the way Democrats and Republicans think the economy is faring. The latest reading for November had Democrats at 88.4 and Republicans at 37.8, a record difference of 49 points (D+49). Independents were at 70. Derek noted that there has never been this big a gap in terms of the way people perceived the economy based on their party affiliation.

Now, you could argue that maybe people in blue areas on the coasts are genuinely experiencing different/better economic conditions than people in redder areas. But the gap in perceptions was the opposite in October 2019, with Republicans at 119, Democrats at 71.6 and Independents at 100 (R+47). You’ll recall that Trump was the President then.

Yes, Democrats are 49 points more optimistic now, and Republicans were 47 points more optimistic last Fall, with each swing the biggest on record. Apparently, how we feel about the people in charge determines how we feel the economy is faring.

If you turn on Fox News right now, you’ll see relentless blaring about skyrocketing inflation and economic distress. On the other side you’ll see very different coverage. The Democrats are often talking down inflation while the Republicans treat it as unprecedented.

As usual, as Derek points out, the reality is somewhere in the middle. Inflation is real and serious and painful, but not as apocalyptic or unprecedented as it’s being made out to be in some circles.

It should be emphasized that the gaps in party perception of the economy being this big is unprecedented. For example, as recently as 2016 the gap was less than half its current level over 5 surveys (D+21).

Michael Grunwald wrote in Politico in 2020: “There is a line of thinking that America has entered a kind of postmodern political era where the appearance of governing is just as politically powerful as actual governing, because most Americans now live in partisan spin bubbles that insulate them from facts on the ground.” Passing laws, solving problems, and measuring impacts don’t matter as much as arguing for your version of reality with aligned media outlets reinforcing your preferred narrative.

I know, this is dark stuff. Our country is getting so unmoored that there are two distinct versions of reality that determine people’s perceptions of day-to-day economic conditions. We imagine that the two parties will wage a contest based on policies and how we are doing. Instead, the argument itself is replacing governance.

What does this mean? First, we should acknowledge the situation that we’re in; we are in a time when people’s feelings about who is in charge are now so strong that they override other inputs.

Second, there is a need to amend our media landscape so that there is some type of objective reality that can be used as a starting point. Today, it’s a lot to expect all Americans to be on the same page. But if a critical mass of people can agree on certain facts in a polarized country, they can be the swing group.

Last, if you want to know how the economy is doing, apparently you should ask an Independent.

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