The Future of Work

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great.  I was in Arizona last weekend for a big Forward Party event which was a blast.  We have scheduled events for San Francisco, Los Angeles, Seattle, Raleigh and more coming up so keep an eye out!    
 
This week on the podcast I welcome back Kevin Roose, tech reporter for the New York Times to talk about AI and the future of work. 
 
Now, as you likely know I have very strong feelings about the future of work.  My 2020 presidential campaign was built around the fact that automation and AI are going to gobble up tons of American jobs. 
 
Since 2020, the labor force has actually shrunk by about 2.4 million workers:

It is a mystery why the labor force has shrunk; some are early retirees. Some are urban workers who have relocated someplace else and are doing something that doesn’t register as a job. Some are parents – particularly women – who have decided to focus more on their family. 
 
Now, with ChatGPT, more knowledge work is being replaced. “A project that used to take 8 hours now takes 40 minutes” is the way one friend who runs a high-end consulting company puts it.  “I’ll probably fire half of my people in 6 months.” 
 
Another friend said to me, “I have to put in a half-hour of deep thinking to figure out the right prompt to feed the AI, but then after that I just got rid of a task that I was going to pay someone else to do.” 
 
Another entrepreneur said, “I wrote a press release in less than 5 minutes. I fed the AI, got a template and then edited. It was a breeze.” 
 
Unrelated to AI, tech companies have laid off more than 100,000 workers in a reset as their stock prices have gone down. One of the difficult truths is that a significant percentage – probably 20% - of workers in most large organizations are largely irrelevant to how that organization will perform. 
 
Indeed, a lot of the headwinds have been caused by higher interest rates that have forced businesses – tech, banks, real estate, everyone – to have to generate real returns instead of taking free money and lending it, spending it, or basking in a sky-high stock price built on a rosy future. 
 
The transition to more remote work is doubtless a force toward automation. If someone is remote, their job is one step closer to being replaced. The return to office work is highly uneven. Workers prefer remote or hybrid work and are making career decisions accordingly. Unfortunately, eventually so will employers.   
 
For years now, the proportion of repetitive manual and repetitive cognitive jobs in the economy has been falling relative to high-end cognitive jobs.  Repetitive jobs comprise 44% of jobs in the economy.  This week, a University of Pennsylvania study suggested that AI will impact about 80% of all workers to some extent. 

Kevin says in his book “Futureproof” “Be Surprising, Social and Scarce” and “Don’t be an Endpoint.”  In our interview this week he comments, “I think work will get more social. At least, that’s the hope.” 
 
I’ll confess to being pessimistic. The firms and CEOs I know are chomping at the bit to set AI loose in a way that most don’t understand.  What’s ironic is that the impact will be most sharply felt in the most efficient environments first. The future of work promises to be a shrinking number of people in extraordinarily high-end jobs atop the AI and increasing numbers on the outside looking in. Limitless work can be done by AI, but who will that work benefit, and how will the average person experience the change? Any positive answer would require a rapid advancement of our society in a compressed time frame. 
 
I ran for President on this in 2019 and 2020.  Did I think it would be here in 2023?  We don’t have that much time to evolve.

For my interview with Kevin click here.  For my book on automation and the workforce ‘The War on Normal People’ click here.  To move our government forward so that it can start to tackle this challenge in earnest, check out Forward.  

Silicon Valley Bank, Tech and Politics

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great!  I was in Arizona this weekend for a Forward Party event, which was phenomenal.  I also was on Bill Maher on Friday in a wide-ranging conversation – check it out if you can. 

On the podcast this week I discuss Silicon Valley Bank and its aftermath with CNBC Contributor and Big Technology writer Alex Kantrowitz.  “All anyone could talk about in tech last week was Silicon Valley Bank.”     

It wasn’t that long ago that people nearly universally felt like technology was a positive force in the world.  Last week told a different story. “It was a gutcheck moment that folks in tech realized that there were a lot of people really rooting for them to fail,” Alex commented.  “There’s a sense that if the bank had just been called something like Santa Clara Regional Bank it would have been much less political.” 

He’s right. Today in America just about everything gets politicized. In 2011, I started a non-profit, Venture for America, to train aspiring entrepreneurs in Detroit, Cleveland, Baltimore, New Orleans and other cities.  At the time, entrepreneurs were regarded as builders, innovators, and job creators. 

Now, 12 years later, some of the most prominent entrepreneurs in the country are objects of controversy, and there’s a palpable sense that developments in technology have been cause for concern more than celebration. 

Our kids and teenagers are anxious and depressed, in part because of social media.  Our public discourse has been splintered into a thousand different realities giving each of us more of what we want to hear.

AI Is developing at a rate that is almost unfathomable.  It may subvert human agency, as well as disrupt millions of jobs.  We could barely comprehend ChatGPT-3 and now its successor GPT-4 is here in quick succession. 

Tech giants and intermediaries sell and resell our data for hundreds of billions of dollars a year, and we don’t see a dime of it. 

As Tristan Harris puts it, “We have primordial brains, medieval institutions, and godlike technologies.”  Tech is getting smarter, and we are not. 

In this environment, it’s little wonder that, when the tech ecosystem was on the line with Silicon Valley Bank, there was some hostility. 

“I want technology to be part of the solution,” Alex says.  “Maybe the recognition of the skepticism will lead to something positive.”  We can only hope. And maybe we can help make it happen.

For my conversation with Alex click here.  To try to speed up our institutions to address the challenges of this era, check out Forward.  

The Aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank

Well, that was more nerve-wracking than it had to be. On Sunday, the FDIC, Treasury Department and the Fed stepped in to guarantee Silicon Valley Bank depositors.  They did the same for Signature Bank, which was similarly going through a crash as people withdrew their money. 

Of course, the blamegame commenced. Dems blamed Trump for deregulating the banks. Republicans blamed Democrats for not properly overseeing regional banks, or for bailing them out. 

The term ‘bailout’ is not an accurate description of what happened. It suggests that the bankers are still there and are fine. That’s not the case – management has been fired and the shareholders zeroed out. What happened was that depositors over $250k – the vast majority of customers – could take their money out. This is very different than what happened during the financial crisis; “Backstopping” would be more accurate.

Anyone who was not for guaranteeing deposits doesn’t understand what would have happened next. There would have been a crisis of confidence in a whole shlew of regional banks as everyone pulled their deposits and put them in JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and the top tier of too-big-to-fail banks.  People and businesses were already doing that over the weekend.  The confidence problem would have overtaken the whole financial sector and turned into a massive conflagration that the Feds would have had to step into, only the horse would have been out of the barn.  There were also the thousands of companies and tens of thousands of workers who would have been bankrupted or laid off through no fault of their own.  Backstopping depositors was categorically the right thing to do. 

So, the problem is now solved right? 

Not quite. 

Silicon Valley Bank went bust largely because it bought Treasury Bonds that paid about 1.1% and then interest rates shot up to 4.5%, rising more quickly than many expected. SVB should have either bought shorter-term bonds or hedged the interest rate risk.  They didn’t. So their bonds sunk in value, causing liquidity concerns and then some of their customers ran for the door. 

What are the odds that another bank did the same thing as Silicon Valley Bank, buying low-interest bonds without hedging, perhaps not to the same extreme, but enough to reduce their value and viability? 

Probably 100%. Hedging risks costs money. Stretching in this way gooses the bank’s earnings in that quarter. There are going to be a bunch of bond revaluations at a lower level as more banks come clean. 

By the way, big tech companies have already been through a similar revaluation.  When interest rates were essentially zero, people would pay anything for growth.  You say you’re going to be huge in 10 years?  We’ll bid your stock price to the moon! 

But now, if you’re getting paid 5% on your money risk-free in bonds, that company’s future growth is worth less to you relatively speaking.  It’s going to big in 10 years?  Well, 5% compounded over 10 years is 62.8%, so you’re going to have to grow a lot faster than that for me to want to take the risk of buying your stock.  Tech got revalued and started shedding workers – over 100,000 at last count. 

You know what else is going to get revalued in a huge way? Commercial real estate. Midtown Manhattan office buildings remain 50% unoccupied as employees continue to work from home. Many of these buildings have periodic loan repayments and refinancing.  What are they worth now? No one knows for sure. If you valued them at current cash flow from tenants, many would be worth less than the loans on them.  It would be like owing a million dollars to a bank on a mortgage on a house that now is worth $800,000.  You would just let the bank take the house. You’re going to see a lot of this in the months ahead; commercial landlords are going to give the keys to the bank and banks will take losses.  

You are also seeing very low homebuying volumes and many fewer transactions as buyers have sticker shock on higher mortgage payments and sellers are reluctant to take a lower price than their house was worth just a few months ago.  Low inventory plays a role here too – it’s a brutal environment if you’re trying to get into the housing market for the first time. 

We have had an era of zero interest rates for essentially fourteen years, from 2008 - 2022. The quick shift to 4.5% or higher will be too much too quickly for a lot of firms and businesses that fed on the cheap money but no longer make sense and can’t generate high enough real returns.  There will be large-scale revaluations and a ton of pain as it gets sorted out. 

Who’s to blame? The truth is that we are in uncharted territory. The last time inflation rose to a point where the Fed had to raise interest rates like this to cool the economy like this was in the 70s – which led to stagflation, a very rough economic period and a banking crisis. Finance has grown exponentially since then. 

I am incredibly relieved that the Feds stepped up and averted a budding crisis of confidence for the time being.  But this crisis will take many forms - and is just beginning. 

Warren Buffett famously said, “Only when the tide goes out, do you see who’s swimming naked.”  Silicon Valley Bank isn’t the only firm to have its trunks off.  It’s just the first to surface. 

Larry Hogan

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great!  I was in Austin at SXSW this weekend, and next weekend I’m in Phoenix for a big Forward Party event!  I’m also briefly in LA for Bill Maher on Friday. 

The news came out last week that Larry Hogan, former governor of Maryland, decided not to run for President as a Republican in 2024. 

I was mildly surprised; I had dinner with Governor Hogan last year and he seemed like someone who was strongly considering running for President and figuring out his path.  He was tired of the back-and-forth politics and wanted to improve things. 

In another era, Larry Hogan would have been very appealing; he was the outgoing two-term Republican governor of Maryland, a deep blue state.  He had approval ratings above 70%.  He won support by governing in a practical manner and showing up to any neighborhood, including traditional Democratic constituencies. 

He also was a vocal critic of Donald Trump, leaving no ambiguity about his sense of the former President and current frontrunner.  “The people that try to whitewash Jan. 6 as if nothing happened are delusional. It was an assault on democracy.” 

In deciding not to run, Hogan wrote about avoiding a pile-up of candidates that might improve Trump’s chances. Indeed, it’s one of the main things increasing Trump’s odds, that more candidates will split the anti-Trump vote. Moderate governors considering a run include Chris Sununu and Chris Christie joining Nikki Haley. 

As one magazine put it, “Larry Hogan Won’t Run in 2024’s Imaginary GOP Moderate Lane.”  One prominent Republican interested in the race said to me, “A generic Republican can defeat Joe Biden.” My response was, “Sure, but a generic Republican can’t win your party’s nomination.” The energy in the Republican Party lies in the extreme that is still dominated by Trump. 

The problem that Larry Hogan faced was the reality that a presidential run by a reasonable moderate in a Republican primary was going to fall on deaf ears. Happily, Hogan recognized this. And he put the greater good above his own personal political ambitions. 

He also left the door ajar to run not as a Republican, but from outside the two-party system. “But, I mean, look, if you got to an election when the nominees were Biden and Trump and 70% of America didn’t want that, you wouldn’t rule it out, right?” Will we have a choice beyond the two parties? Personally, I think that Larry Hogan’s prospects are brighter outside of the two-party system than within it. The Republican Party is no longer welcoming to reasonable no-nonsense leaders like Hogan. But outside of those quarters, Americans are looking for people like him who care more about the country than themselves. 

Want to help the country move beyond the dysfunction? Join Forward in your area today!  

For my thoughts on Joe Biden and the Democrats, click here.  

Silicon Valley Bank

This past week, Silicon Valley Bank collapsed.  It happened very quickly – over less than two days. 

It is hard to overstate how shocking this is.  Silicon Valley Bank is – was – the 16th biggest bank in the country.  It had $212 billion in assets, making it the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history after Washington Mutual in 2008. 

This was not some easy-come-easy-go fly-by-night company – this was a genuine decades-old institution.  It had 17 branch offices where people used to go and, you know, bank. 

Thousands of companies held their cash in Silicon Valley Bank.  Roku reported having $487 million in cash there.  Camp Store reported having most of their cash at SVB – and is having an emergency weekend sale so it can try and pay its payroll on Monday.  One report said that 97% of SVB’s clients – mostly companies – had more than $250,000 in their accounts. The FDIC only insures up to $250,000 per client.  That means that Roku is now worried about whether it will get back $486.75 million.  There are thousands of companies in the same boat. 

The average American was unlikely to be invested in Silicon Valley Bank.  But the average American will be affected as thousands of businesses seize up and lay people off.  One investor said this was like “a bomb going off wiping out a generation of startups, including biotech companies.”  Imagine dozens of life-saving drugs that go undiscovered. 

Why did this happen?  Mismanagement.  The folks at SVB failed to account for rising interest rates reducing the value of their bond portfolio.  That miscalculation alone wouldn’t normally kill a bank.  But there was a rush for the door that drained their cash more quickly than most could have imagined.  Confidence is a powerful thing.  When you lose it in a fluid environment, you lose everything. 

That mismanagement does not extend to SVB’s clients.  It’s like blaming someone for going to eat at a restaurant chain and getting poisoned.  Their only sin was that they chose the wrong bank – which by the way was a massive bank and the industry standard. 

As I’m writing this, regulators and government officials are cobbling together a rescue plan.  Hopefully they will come in and restore confidence.  Companies like Roku and Camp will be able to go back to their businesses instead of freaking out about their bank.  Employees will keep their jobs.  Because that’s the main thing at stake here.  If Silicon Valley Bank can disappear virtually overnight, what is safe?  

Marianne Williamson

I ran for President in 2020 – and thus spent a fair amount of time with the other candidates. Cory Booker, Joe Biden, Amy Klobuchar, Tulsi Gabbard, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris – we would all run into each other speaking or campaigning in the early states or at any number of public forums. Sometimes you’re in the same waiting room for 20 minutes before the cameras go on.

One candidate I connected with early on was Marianne Williamson.  Marianne was always warm, generous and thoughtful anytime I saw her.  And she worked as hard as anyone, relocating to Iowa for months and conducting dozens, perhaps hundreds of community events.  She campaigned with me in Iowa at least once down the stretch. 

Marianne recently announced she is running for President in 2024.  I love her courage and independence; it takes a lot to run, perhaps more to run again. 

“We are six inches away from the edge,” Marianne says.  “Americans need to know that we can do more than just survive.  We can thrive.”  I interview Marianne on the podcast this week.  “We keep being told that ‘things are complicated.’  They’re not complicated.  They’re corrupt.” 

I’ve written that I think a contested primary would be a good thing.  Isn’t that what democracy is all about? Marianne and I discuss at length the DNC’s changing of the primary calendar to elevate South Carolina at the expense of New Hampshire and Iowa.  “I was in New Hampshire last week and the Democrats there are mad,” Marianne comments.  “What did they do wrong?  Their big mistake was that they didn’t vote for Joe Biden.” 

There are, I’m sure, a dozen major Democrats who want to run for President but are being told not to by the party.  “Someone was told it was political suicide to run,” Marianne shares.  “What am I protecting?”  Meanwhile polling shows that a majority of Democratic voters – 60% - either want to move on from Joe Biden or want a competitive primary. 

Marianne is clear-eyed about the nature of the challenge.  “I know they are going to try to invisible-ize me.  But I think that’s a lot harder now than it was. People are catching on.” 

Mark Leibovich in the Atlantic this week wrote that Trump has instilled a massive risk aversion in the Democrats.  In the same article, he encourages a challenge to Biden. He cites a couple very American principles of choice and freedom as reasons to have a competitive primary. 

Marianne concurs.  “If the people vote for Joe Biden as the nominee, I’ll be among the first to support him.  But shouldn’t the people decide?  Is this not still a democracy?”  Marianne is going to test that proposition, and I for one am grateful.  Our way out of our current polarization is more democracy, not less.

For my interview with Marianne, click here.  To check out Forward in your area, click here – we are growing all of the time.  Let's reconnect our leaders to what people actually want.  

The Republican Field Begins to Form

Hello, I hope that you had a great weekend! 

As Biden bides his time in terms of a decision to run to be announced in April, the Republican primary is heating up.  Donald Trump has a stranglehold on 25 – 30% of the base, which may be enough to win.  Nikki Haley has announced along with entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.  Tim Scott is about to get in, and Ron DeSantis is waiting in the wings while essentially already campaigning in New York and California.  I’d expect Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie and a few others to declare by May. 

Photo by Gage Skidmore

That gets you to ten candidates pretty quickly. Polling has come out in the last few days showing Ron DeSantis is now stronger than Trump among Republican voters.  Trump’s attention and hostility will be focused on DeSantis as a result – Trump is showing up in Ohio and actually campaigning.  Every other candidate will have to answer why they are relevant next to one of those two, even as DeSantis hasn’t officially declared. 

The primary debates start in late summer and the voting in Iowa in early February.  There are about 11 months until the voting starts.  Many of these candidates won’t make it to the voting but will drop out beforehand due to lack of viability.  Their viability will be determined by fundraising, press and polling. 

I remember when I was running for President – my team would use a metaphor of 3 race cars that were chained together.  If one raced ahead it would get stuck if the other two weren’t also making progress.  Let’s say you raised a lot of money but had bad polling or press.  Your funding would dry up.  If you weren’t raising money you wouldn’t seem serious to either early voters or the press.  And if the press ignored you it would be hard to lift either polling or fundraising.  You see how it works.  This is particularly why making every debate stage is important – as soon as you miss a televised debate you become less viable to donors, voters and reporters. 

Fundraising results are reported every quarter, so they get used as a benchmark for how each campaign is doing.  It’s one reason why you’ll see a flurry of announcements in April so they don’t have to report any results until July.  For each candidate, you have a projection as to how much money you’ll raise but the truth is that beyond your loyalists you don’t really know who is going to find you compelling enough to make a donation.  How many people will watch your announcement video and then bust out their credit card? 

Vivek Ramaswamy is going to be more viable than a lot of people think.  His message appeals to a certain type of pro-business Independent.  He’s worth a reported $500 million and can self-fund into the tens of millions, which is relatively unique in the field – most candidates will be spending a lot of their time jetting off to court donors on the coasts instead of working the early states.  He doesn’t need to do that.  He can pay for advertising and a retinue of staffers.  He’ll get quality people in the early states and can build a field operation.  He’s only 37 and will be able to work and campaign to all hours.  Fundamentally, he has a distinct message and appeal and seems different from the other candidates, which is an advantage in what will soon be a crowded field. 

Nikki Haley is running on a return to traditional Republican principles and a new generation of leadership.  Her campaign in part rests on the collapse of one of the two major frontrunners, which is the same bet that a lot of other candidates will be forced to make.  She is drawing significant crowds in the early primary states which is a good place to start. 

One of the other governors – Larry Hogan, Chris Sununu, Chris Christie – is going to take on the full-on anti-Trump moderate message and to turn the page on extremism and losing.  There’s little evidence that Republican primary voters are hungering for a return to moderation though. 

Tim Scott presents a very interesting figure as a black Senator in one of the important early states. He would neuter the “Republicans are racist” accusation, which will be appealing to a lot of voters who want a positive message and messenger.  My friends in South Carolina on both sides of the aisle say he’s the real deal and is compelling in both private and public settings.  His ceiling is high and he may be one of the reasons Nikki Haley is not getting more attention as he will get a lot of support in South Carolina. 

The major question is – how will Ron DeSantis hold up when he gets the full brunt of attention as the frontrunner?  There are people who are dubious that he can maintain his status when he gets vetted for real after he announces.  History is filled with candidates who wilt upon closer inspection or a couple bad press cycles.  As someone who has been there, you don’t truly know how someone is going to respond until you’re there.  DeSantis is not much of a natural schmoozer – he doesn’t enjoy political rituals the way some others do.  In Iowa in particular that’s not an ideal fit. 

Keep an eye out for the fundraising totals at the beginning of April as they will signal Trump’s enduring strength (or not) among the grassroots, Nikki Haley’s ability to capitalize on declaring early, and whether Vivek is catching on.  But the real tension will be later that month when Joe Biden declares and probably Ron DeSantis and several other Republicans too. 

People ask me all of the time who I think will be the major party candidates for 2024.  Right now the most likely bets are Joe Biden (whom I don't think should run again but probably will) on the Democratic side and either Trump or DeSantis on the Republican side.  Of course a lot can change.  But this presidential cycle is heating up, and each passing day makes the likely scenario more probable.

Want a new approach to politics?  Check out Forward in your area as we are growing fast!  For an interview with our brand new CEO Lindsey Drath click here.  We deserve better choices.  

Campaigning in CA

Hello, I hope that you’re doing great! 
 
I was in Los Angeles campaigning for Forward this past week and had an awesome time.  Governor Christie Todd Whitman and I did an interview with statewide press and we met with activists and leaders in the state. 

Literally thousands of Californians signed up for the new party upon our announcement – they know that politics as usual isn’t working in the Golden State and a new approach is needed.  Homelessness was top of mind for the folks in LA but there were many other issues as well. 
 
Fundamentally, California functions as a one-party state, with Democrats enjoying a supermajority.  We don’t think that delivers the best policies, results or accountability for the people.  And you can see that California has been struggling with people and businesses leaving due to the high costs of living and quality of life issues.  It’s a wonderful place – but we think it can do better moving forward.  And far too many Californians feel like they are on the outside looking in.    
 
You can register for the Common Sense party now to make your voice heard!  Forward and Common Sense will be teaming up to get party recognition through the rest of the year.  We need to get 73,000 registrations and are almost halfway there already!  Every voter counts so tell your friends and family who you know want something new. Register today! 
 
If California were its own country it would be the 5th biggest economy in the world.  It’s no exaggeration to say that where you go, the world will follow.  It’s one reason why I’m so excited for this effort.  I’ll be back in California every month this year to continue making the case, so keep an eye out! 
 
Love California!  Let’s make it better. 

Leaders Wanted

Hello, I hope your weekend was great.  I was in Los Angeles this week meeting with party leaders and doing press for our big launch in California this month with our new affiliate, CA Common Sense. 

I started the Forward Party 16 months ago with conviction on a few big things.  One, America is getting more and more polarized and is careening toward dysfunction and open conflict.  Two, the answer will not come from within the traditional two-party system, which feeds into tribalism by design.  Three, a new political force is required that rewards problem-solving and will fuel reform of the structures that disproportionately empower the extremes in American life. 

I also knew there was a massive appetite for a better, more positive approach to our politics meant to bring people together rather than pit us against each other.  There are good people of every political background and it’s okay to disagree with someone and still share a community with them. 

Over the past year-plus, I’ve had the pleasure of meeting a number of leaders who have come to similar conclusions.  One of the most remarkable among them was Lindsey Drath, who was just named the new CEO of the Forward Party.

Lindsey comes to Forward as the lead fundraiser for Unite America, an organization that funds reform campaigns and ballot initiatives for measures like nonpartisan primaries and Ranked Choice Voting.  “I sold democracy plumbing to rich people” is how Lindsey puts it.  Of course, that plumbing might just save the country. 

Over time, Lindsey came to realize the need for a popular movement.  “People need a group that they can join.  And the reform movement needs to involve actual everyday Americans who want to stand up and improve things for themselves.”  The Forward Party now has over 30,000 active volunteers in all fifty states, and is making rapid headway as the biggest independent political effort in a generation. 

Lindsey is an experienced political operative, so people tried to dissuade her from joining Forward.  “Oh yeah, people try to scare you.  They say this is a one-way street, and you can’t come back to party politics.  The fact is, I’m so grateful that this movement exists, because I can do this work on behalf of the country while knowing I’m doing the right thing.  This is the right answer.”  Lindsey started her own successful consulting firm in D.C. while raising three kids – she’s a powerhouse who is not easily daunted by naysayers.   

With Forward, Lindsey simply showed up and started working.  That’s her instinct.  I’ve had the pleasure of working with her for the last several months, and I know how lucky we are to get someone like her willing to bet her career and reputation on a new approach to politics.  Matt, Miles, Kait and the rest of the team are pumped to work alongside her because she’s already been here making things better for months.    

“I talk to people all of the time, and they are what I’d call Forward-curious” Lindsey says.  “They aren’t convinced yet, but a lot of them wonder whether maybe this time it’s different and new things are possible.  And many of them are distressed at how bad our politics have become and desperately want an alternative.  As we grow, more and more will join us.” 

Followers look around and wonder what others think.  Leaders build what others regard as impossible and leave others wondering why they didn’t see it sooner. 

Welcome to Lindsey – with her at the helm there’s no limit to what Forward will become. 

To join Forward in your state, click here.  To listen to my interview with Lindsey this week click here.  To become a donor to Forward, click here.  Let’s lead.  

Joe Biden and 2024

Last Tuesday Joe Biden gave a State of the Union address that could aptly be characterized as a kickoff for his re-election campaign.  It included many kitchen table elements meant to appeal to specific voters. 

Every indication has been that Joe is running.  I was in South Carolina several weeks ago and they described a total lack of outreach by any other establishment Democrats.  (They weren’t happy about it by the way – the folks in South Carolina want a competitive primary and all of the attention and resources it would bring, particularly as Democrats are now something of a minority in the state.)  The DNC voted last week to elevate South Carolina to first in the nation, which is meant to protect Joe from challengers. 

The big losers in the DNC’s new early state calendar are Iowa and New Hampshire.  Iowa has been completely kicked out of the early primary states by the Dems (it will remain first for the Republicans, so you’ll still see a lot of stories out of there this year).  New Hampshire has been demoted to the same day as Nevada in the 2nd week, pending its ability to change state law (which won’t happen because Republicans control the state legislature; New Hampshire state law says that they go first no matter what. The DNC will likely threaten to take away delegates and other penalties if New Hampshire schedules its primary ahead of South Carolina). 
 
I get Iowa getting kicked out on one level – the state party completely botched the caucuses in the last cycle and weren’t able to report results.  Iowa is now dominated by Republicans and is a homogeneous largely rural state.  But the national Democratic Party’s message to white, Midwestern and rural voters gets harder if they explicitly dump states like Iowa and Ohio for states like Arizona and Nevada.  It accelerates the polarization of the two parties if you stop fighting for “the other party’s” voters. 
 
New Hampshire getting demoted makes less sense given that the state party there did everything that was asked of it.  It also doesn’t make sense to ask NH Democrats to change the state law when they don’t control the legislature.  It feels like New Hampshire is being punished simply for being too white/not diverse enough and . . . for not voting for Joe Biden. 
 
Which brings us back to Joe Biden and the Democratic field.  Party surrogates were out in force touting Joe as the Democratic standard bearer right after his speech.  He will likely declare sometime between now and April.  The field will be largely clear of challengers despite consistent polling that shows that a majority of Democrats and Americans generally are leery of Joe running again because of his advanced age; he will be 82 at the end of 2024, easily the oldest person to ever sit in the Oval Office even before he starts a potential second term. 
 
This week on the podcast I sit down with Chris Cillizza, veteran political reporter from CNN, to discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields.  “People went crazy when Ronald Reagan ran and Reagan was a decade younger . . . if Biden didn’t have control over the reins of the Democratic process, which he does, and incumbent Presidents generally do . . . is there a lane where someone runs under a generational change message where someone who is 82 can’t be the future of the party?  That’s a case that there is some polling data that supports an interest in, particularly among younger Democratic voters.” 
 
When I’m out and about, the average American shakes his or head in disbelief when they hear that Joe is running again.  Often, they simply say, “He’s too old.” 
 
His age is less of an issue against Trump, who would be 77 in 2024.  But it would be a striking contrast with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, or any candidate younger than 70.  Indeed, Biden’s prospects are buoyed by the looming Trump campaign.  One can easily imagine the Dems trying to boost Trump as ‘the more beatable’ candidate in next year’s Republican primary to try and strengthen Joe’s hand.  That’s what passes for politics in today’s two-party system. 
 
I personally think that Joe is doing us all a disservice by running again – he should make way for the next generation and let a competitive primary determine the next leader.  It’s okay to think that Joe was a fine candidate for 2020 and not for 2024.  Confident and functional organizations pass the baton. 
 
If Joe does insist on running again, I think the Democrats should run a competitive primary to determine his running mate.  There’s significant discomfort with Kamala Harris as the heir apparent as she fared poorly in 2020, dropping out well before the voting started.  Voting for an 82-year-old President may well be voting for his running mate. 
 
Someone said to me that they liked Joe as a person, but at this point “he’s a walking emblem for a decaying establishment.”  In America though, whatever’s in place stays in place unless it’s defeated and replaced.  That’s what both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are counting on. 
 
For my interview with Chris Cillizza in which we discuss both the Democratic and Republican fields, click here.  To push our politics in a new and better direction, check out Forward here.  Some exciting news on that front coming soon!