How Trump Wins

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great in the home stretch!    
 
A couple weeks ago I looked at the Republican Field, which is yet dominated by Donald Trump, the odds-on favorite to be the Republican nominee despite all of his legal troubles.  I named Vivek Ramaswamy as the most likely candidate to breakout, potentially at the Republican debate this week. 

But let’s say Trump gets the nomination, which is still the most likely outcome.  What are Trump’s prospects in the general election, should he make it there? 
 
Recent polling has Trump and Biden tied at about 43% apiece nationally.  In other words, neck-and-neck. 
 
But it’s not likely to be just the two of them.   
 
Cornel West is running on the Green Party ticket. Will he be a factor? 
 
Howie Hawkins of the Green Party got only .3% with ballot access in 30 states in 2020.  That seems very low. 
 
However, Jill Stein got 1.1% in 45 states in 2016, and is now running Cornel West’s campaign. I think that West is a stronger candidate than either Hawkins or Stein were, and 2/3rds of Americans are not excited about either Biden or Trump.  Cornel West is polling at 4 – 5%.  I’d project Cornel West at somewhere between 1 to 3% in the general election, with the vast majority – maybe 70% - coming from Joe Biden and the Democrats. 
 
Keep in mind the tiny margin of victory in the key swing states of Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Wisconsin in particular.  The race is likely to be determined by tens of thousands of voters with a difference of less than 1% in these 4 states.
 
Cornel West could easily swing any and all of these states. 
 
Will there be other candidates?  RFK Jr. has been polling at about 13% of the Democratic electorate in what passes for the Democratic primary.  In my view, it’s quite likely he says, “Look, the Democrats did not give me a fair shake.  My campaign will continue to the general election!”  His choices will be to run as an Independent or as a Libertarian, with the latter being much easier because they have ballot access in all 50 states. 
 
What would be in it for the Libertarian Party?  If a minor party gets 5% in a presidential election, that party gets federal funds of approximately $10 million to use for party building infrastructure in the next election cycle.  This is one reason why the Reform Party was a viable vehicle in 1996 after Perot ran.  So the Libertarian Party would likely welcome RFK Jr. with open arms in an attempt to get 5%. 
 
I’d put RFK Jr. at a similar level as Cornel West of 1 – 4%, with a slight majority of his voters coming from Joe Biden – his last name is Kennedy after all and a lot of Democrats remain reverential of the family. 
 
There are also consistent rumors that Joe Manchin of West Virginia is considering a presidential run on the No Labels Unity Ticket.  I take this very seriously, as his alternative is to run for Senate re-election against a popular GOP governor in West Virginia, a state that Trump took by 38 points in a cycle Trump is on the ballot, on behalf of a party that barely tolerates him.  Or he could make his swansong a country-unifying Lincoln-type presidential run alongside a Republican like Larry Hogan.  If you were 75 years old looking for a final act, which would you choose? 
 
You could easily have 5 presidential candidates on the ballot, with each being a significant factor:  Biden, Trump, West, Kennedy, and Manchin.
 
I think Joe Biden manages to eke out a narrow win against Trump one-on-one if he doesn’t have a health/age problem and there isn’t an economic setback.  But with West, Kennedy and/or Manchin on the ballot, he probably loses to Trump. 
 
I view Trump winning as a catastrophe.  Someone asked me what the smartest thing to do in this situation – I answered “Run the craziest person you can think of to weaken Trump.”  That’s what this system is giving us. 
 
Another plan would be to rally hundreds of thousands of independent swing voters in Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada to vote for whichever candidate offers real reforms of the dysfunctional political system.  Changing the primary system to allow all voters to vote for all candidates could actually be on the ballot in both Nevada and Arizona in 2024.  This will be the Forward Party’s plan – I hope that you will be a part of it. 
 
In 1860, there were 4 presidential candidates that got 39.8%, 29.5%, 18.1%, and 12.6% respectively.  The winner?  Abraham Lincoln.  That time, the right person won even as the country was fragmenting.  We are heading back in that general direction, with the two parties losing credibility at breakneck speed.  Will it be for good, or the opposite? 
 
Check the Math.  What a ridiculous system.  Let’s modernize it as quickly as we can. 
 
If you want to build a new direction in politics, check out Forward today.  For a fictionalized account of a third-party presidential campaign and where it leads, check out “The Last Election” my new book with Stephen Marche that comes out September 12th!  

Visiting the Picket Line

Hello, I hope that you are having a great summer!  August is a phenomenal time to get some rest and family time.  
 
This past week I visited the SAG-AFTRA picket line in Los Angeles.  The actors have been on strike since May fighting for a fair deal, joining the writers who were already on strike.  Actors and writers are trying to make sure they don’t get displaced by AI among other things. 

I met Bryan Cranston on the picket line – he made an impassioned speech recently on behalf of the actors.  But the vast majority of the people on the line and in the union are anonymous and often holding part-time jobs in order to be free to audition for roles.  87% don’t work enough to have health care through their work in the entertainment industry – which means they earn $26,000 or less.  
 
Actors and writers are among the approximately 10% of U.S. workers who are in a union – chances are that you’re in the other 90%.  The fact is that the vast majority of workers will simply feel the effects of automation without having a negotiation or conversation.  They will just show up to their place of work and find a smaller team and a new process that requires fewer people.    
 
The actors and writers are thus in an unusual position where they may be able to beat back these changes.  I suggested two tacks to them.  First, they should start their own studio with fair work and rules regarding AI.  This would in some ways be history repeating itself, as United Artists got started similarly about 100 years ago. In this era, the studio is much easier to replace than the talent, as financing, production, marketing and distribution are easier to procure. 
 
Second, they should head to Sacramento and agitate for rules regarding use of AI in movie and TV production.  The actors and writers are much more sympathetic to politicians and the public than the studios, who have done a great job alienating people.  Every major Democratic Senate candidate in CA has already sided with the actors and writers and the state legislators are 75% Democrats.  California already is leading the country in privacy and data rights regulations; it could take the lead here too.  
 
I posted a video from the picket line with a couple of the actors: one of them said, “We just want a fair deal, we’re not trying to ask for the world here . . . most of us are part-time, we have a passion that we’re working part-time on . . . we’re like the working class and something has got to give.”  
 
A lot of Americans feel the same way.  

My new book ‘the Last Election’ arrives in September – check out the first review and pre-order today!  And click here to see what Forward is doing in your area.  

Campaigning in California

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great! 
 
I’ve spent the past month or so campaigning in California.  People love it here.  But there are consistent concerns. Some have left the state because of housing costs.  Folks have to commute for hours to get to work.  Families are afraid to go to certain neighborhoods because of homeless people struggling with drug addiction.  Cars are routinely broken into in San Francisco.  Public schools are underperforming.  It’s expensive and getting harder to justify. 

How will these problems turn around?  One thing that could help is real competition and choice in our politics. 
 
California is a state where Democrats run just about everything – 75% of state legislators are Democrats.  In most of the state, there isn’t any question as to which party is going to win.  Special interests know what they need to do. 
 
Yet even Democrats I talk to are getting fed up and frustrated, much less Independents and Republicans.  It’s more and more the people vs. the machine. 
 
If this sounds like you, here is our way forward – change your party registration to Common Sense Party of California, who we are partnered with here in CA. 
 
It’s easy to do, and thanks to the California top two primary system it doesn’t affect your ability to vote in anything but the presidential primaries (which are unlikely to be meaningful in CA). 
 
After we get to 73,000 registrants, Common Sense will be a recognized party in California and will be able to support candidates at every level.  You even get a membership card from the Secretary of State.  It’s the pragmatic party most Californians want to see in office and a break from the machine. 
 
This is how to make it clear to the political class that you want real change, and that you’re not going to settle for politics as usual where the money keeps flowing but the problems don’t get solved. 
 
Common Sense in politics in CA?  It’s within our grasp if enough of us simply choose it.  Register today and let’s make it happen!   
 
I’ll be in San Diego on Saturday if you or friends are in the area.  Let’s move CA Forward with Common Sense!  See you soon,

Trump vs. the Field

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great!    

I get asked every day for my take on the ’24 presidential field.  Trump was indicted again last week by the Department of Justice.  Yet he remains the Republican frontrunner by a mile.  Will he become the nominee in March? 

The first Republican debate takes place on August 23rd.  Thus far 7 candidates have qualified:  Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie and Burgum.  Mike Pence and Asa Hutchinson have the polling of 1% but not the donations.  Francis Suarez is giving away $20 gift cards to donors; he and Will Hurd are currently on the outside looking in. 

The RNC has already announced that the polling threshold for the next debate in September will be 3%.  That will make it highly unlikely for anyone who misses the first debate to make the second one.

So realistically the Republican field looks increasingly set.  Who could potentially emerge as the Trump spoiler? 

The conventional wisdom was that Ron DeSantis was the best positioned to defeat Trump based on both polling and money raised; that has deflated a lot in the past month as voters have actually met DeSantis.  “Trump without the jokes,” is how one person put it.  Most of the money raised for DeSantis is actually with his PAC: $100 million vs. the $12 million his campaign has on hand. 

There are major limits to what PACs can do; traditionally most of the money has gone to advertising and events.  They’re not allowed to officially coordinate with campaigns. PACs also pay higher rates for advertising than candidates do.  Basically, PAC money is not nearly as valuable as money on hand for a campaign. 

When enthusiasm for a candidate wanes, PAC money is ordinarily not very helpful.  In 2016, Jeb Bush’s PAC had tons of money that it burnt on ineffective advertising down the stretch as Jeb faded. 

Can DeSantis turn around his campaign?  I’m dubious.  Their pivot hasn’t changed much, because it turns out the candidate is who he is.  And people aren't buying.  

So who is actually the most likely Trump spoiler?  In my opinion, it’s Vivek Ramaswamy. 

Vivek has genuine grassroots enthusiasm based on a distinct and - to Republicans - positive message.  He’s smart and quick on his feet.  He may be the best thinker and political athlete in the field.  He has energy for days.  When voters see him they like him.  And his wealth allows him to self-fund as a bridge.

Some people underestimate Vivek’s chances based on his being unconventional and not an elected official.  The thing is, Republicans don’t care about either of those things.  Only 15% of Republicans have a high trust in media, for example.  He’s reached 3rd or 4th in polling due primarily to his ability and message.  Donors chase momentum.  When he gets a wind at his back, which he will, Vivek is more likely to breakout and consolidate the field than any other candidate. 

Tim Scott is right behind Vivek.  He’s positive and appealing and has a very relatable set of experiences.  There is a set of very wealthy donors that are willing to pump money into Tim Scott’s PAC to the moon.  Scott will have every opportunity to make his case to both voters and donors.  I’m just not as confident about Tim’s ceiling as his message and appeal seem to be the wrong fit for this cycle; voters don't want to feel good about the institutions, they want to blow them up. 

Doug Burgum is actually a dark horse.  He’s steady and a billionaire; think Mike Bloomberg from North Dakota.  His campaign is competent - they got both the polling and the donors because of good execution.  I think the August debate will be great for him as an introduction to millions of voters who right now don’t know he exists.  He’s smart but not terribly exciting.  I think he breaks 3% and makes the September debate. 

Nikki Haley hasn’t made a mark and feels like a conventional politician among a base that doesn’t want one.  Chris Christie is running a very lean, effective campaign – I donated to help him impede Trump – but is well-defined amid Republican voters with very high negatives. 

And that’s the field. 

When I ran for President last cycle, candidates would dropout and it felt sudden, but then sensible and inevitable at the same time.  Beto.  Kamala.  Cory. 

The Republican Field will start shrinking as soon as Labor Day. 

Trump is the heavy favorite to be the Republican nominee, no matter his legal challenges.  If you want to reduce his odds, you want to help Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and/or Doug Burgum breakout among the Republican primary electorate in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. 

Does that seem like a tall order?  That just shows how rough this cycle looks to be. 

The first debate is in two weeks.  We’ll see if it moves the needle.    

If these choices don’t thrill you check out Forward today. I will be in Los Angeles tailgating on Tuesday and San Diego on Saturday – would be great to see you.  Also my new book ‘the Last Election’ arrives in September – check out the first review and pre-order today!  

—-

P.S. Mike Pence also made the debate but has a low ceiling as the Trump sidekick now running against his boss.

Year 2

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great! 
 
This past week we celebrated the 1-year anniversary of Forward Party joining forces with Renew America and Serve America Movement last summer.  600+ activists, volunteers and leaders celebrated via a webinar with special guests and speakers.  We raised $20k from grassroots supporters that was immediately matched by donors – it was an incredible event! 

We’ve accomplished a lot over the past year: hundreds of thousands of supporters, tens of thousands of volunteers, 48 states with leadership chapters, 12 states with executive committees, 6 states with legal recognition, and 20 elected officials affiliated with Forward including mayors and state legislators.  All of these numbers are set to grow quickly in the days ahead as dozens of candidates and current officials are poised to join us. 
 
It’s invigorating to talk to everyday Americans who sense that the status quo isn’t working and want to build a new approach.  These are passionate and optimistic Americans driven to do what’s right for the country and their community.  
 
If you want to see what Forward is doing, now would be a great time!  Click here to check out the Forward Party in your area or to stay updated. 
 
One of the newest members of the Forward Party is Kerry Healey, the former President of Babson College and Lt. Governor of Massachusetts, whom I interview on the podcast this week.  Kerry has had quite a journey – her last job was running the Milken Center for Advancing the American Dream. 
 
“I was motivated to improve things for families and children.  That’s what got me started in politics – issues around domestic violence and child abuse.  I ran for state representative in Massachusetts and lost but impressed some people.  Later, I was asked to join state leadership and became Lieutenant Governor with Mitt Romney.  We accomplished a lot together for families.” 
 
After leaving office, Kerry became President of Babson, one of the most entrepreneurial colleges in the country.  “We have a mandatory class on entrepreneurship that all of the students take their first year where they start a real business with real money in teams – and if they make money the get to keep it,” Kerry describes.  I ran an entrepreneurship organization for a number of years so I appreciate her work a great deal.  We’re going to need a lot more entrepreneurs in this era of economic transformation. 
 
Kerry recently joined the national board of Forward:  “It’s funny – for someone who has been in politics for a long time, I’ve always felt politically homeless.  It’s exciting to build a place for people like myself, and I know more and more Americans feel the same way I do.  I want to do this for the next 20 years.” 
 
It’s amazing to work with people like Kerry and volunteers around the country.  I personally think it will take us a lot less than 20 years to make an enormous mark on this country, especially if Year One is any indication.   
 
For my conversation with Kerry click here.  To check out the summer Forward gear click here – we sold $10k of it in its first day!   
 
I’m in San Francisco Monday night and then in Los Angeles the following week if you have friends in either place.  Enjoy the summer! 

Power and Progress

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great.  I’ll be in San Francisco for a public event on July 31st. 

One of my favorite economists and thinkers is Daron Acemoglu of MIT.  Daron has been researching poverty and prosperity for years and co-authored the bestseller “Why Nations Fail” a few years back.  I cite Daron’s work in the War on Normal People about how lifespans are getting shorter in the United States. 

Daron’s new book, co-authored with fellow MIT professor Simon Johnson, is “Power and Progress: Our 1,000-year Struggle Over Technology and Prosperity.”  It explores whether technological innovation naturally results in broad-based well-being.  That is, when we invent things do people in general do better?  Or are the benefits hoarded by a relatively low number of people who have access to the new technology? 

In reviewing innovations from modern agriculture to the industrial revolution to microchips, Daron and Simon find that, generally speaking, there are a relatively small number of people who benefit while the general public is left on the outside looking in.  For example, during the medieval era the development of agriculture left 90% of the population as peasants and serfs working farmland owned by a handful of landowners.  In more modern times, computer and Internet-enabled productivity gains haven’t raised the real incomes of most Americans even as they have given rise to incredibly valuable firms.  “This is the opposite of what a lot of the dominant public discussion would indicate,” Daron said during our interview this week.  “We are conditioned to think that a rising tide lifts all boats.” 

Of course, their findings are significantly more pressing in the age of AI. “What if AI fundamentally disrupts the labor market where most of us earn our livelihoods, expanding inequalities of pay and work? . . . AI appears set on a trajectory that will multiply inequalities” they write.  Most Americans instinctively sense that, while AI may indeed create a lot of value and a boom for certain companies, the average worker may not be among the beneficiaries.  

Of course, there have been instances when technology has given rise to a general increase in living standards, for example during the post-WWII period in the United States.  Daron and Simon argue that this didn’t happen by accident, but because of popular movements that fought for better work conditions and broader distribution of the benefits of new technologies.  “Electoral competition, the rise of trade unions, and legislation to protect workers’ rights changed how production was organized and wagers were set . . . they also forged a new direction of technology – focused on increasing worker productivity rather than just substituting machinery for the tasks [people] used to perform,” they observe. 

They posit that a few things would need to happen for the gains of AI and new technologies to benefit most American workers: the first is changing the narrative about how the tech is and should be used.  The second is to build a coalition of interest groups that can agitate for better outcomes.  The third is to have policy solutions based on the new narrative.  “A new, more inclusive vision of technology can emerge only if the basis of social power changes.” 

How optimistic is Daron that we are up for this challenge?  “It’s a tall order.  The tech industry and large corporations are politically more influential today than they have been for much of the last hundred years . . . A social movement to redirect technological change away from automation and surveillance is certainly not just around the corner.  All the same, we still think the path of technology remains unwritten.” 

It's hard to argue with so much history: “A thousand years of history and contemporary evidence make one thing abundantly clear; there is nothing automatic about new technologies bringing widespread prosperity.  Whether they do or not is an economic, social and political choice.” 

For my interview with Daron Acemoglu of MIT, click here.  To help build a popular movement for adaptation in the face of new technologies, check out Forward today.  Forward has its one year anniversary event on Thursday – click here to join us with special guests! 

Trump the Sequel

What would a second Trump term look like? 
 
That is in many ways the focus of “Blowback: A Warning to Save Democracy from the Next Trump,” the new book by Miles Taylor.  You likely know Miles as ‘Anonymous,’ the author of the NYTimes Op-Ed warning of the dysfunction and venality of the first Trump administration.  Now Miles is back with a sobering insider look at what a Trump sequel would look like.

Miles ran Renew America, which joined with the Forward Party last year. Miles and Renew America sought to return the Republican Party to some degree of normalcy and principle.  “We failed miserably,” Miles comments wryly.  “MAGA has taken over not just at the federal level, but at the state levels and within the base.” 
 
What would happen under Trump the second time around? “Federal agencies would be weaponized against his political enemies,” Miles warns.  “Trump is running on retribution.  One official I interviewed said ‘It will be a revenge machine.’  You would see MAGA loyalists from the America First Policy Institute being brought in to run agencies as opposed to experts.  Trump learned his lesson last time not to bring in qualified people.” 
 
Miles details some of the ideas that Trump considered in his first term and would return to.  “Trump would cut off undocumented immigrant kids from public schools that receive federal funds.  That’s something he wanted to do last time. He also wanted to gut the Veterans Administration to save money.  He got talked out of that idea as bad for his re-election bid.  This time there is no re-election to consider.  He sees military veterans as ‘suckers’ because he dodged military service himself.” 
 
How realistic is it that Trump wins?  “It’s very realistic,” Miles says.  “Oddsmakers have it at 30%, which is a little bit low.  But he was at 9% in 2016 when he actually did win.  Biden won by only tens of thousands of votes in the swing states and the data shows that the energy among Democrats for Biden is low.  He could win one-on-one, and there are other candidates who could change the math.” 
 
I agree with Miles that Trump’s chances are being underestimated in some quarters.  I think that Biden and the DNC are making a mistake running an 81-year old incumbent with low approval ratings without a competitive process.  I also agree that a Trump return would be disastrous.  
 
Miles has direct knowledge of just what’s at stake.  A second Trump term would be the end of many of our institutions’ tenuous hold on credibility or viability.  And Trumpism is unlikely to end with Trump – the base of the Republican Party enjoys having control and doesn’t want to give it back.  There are two things that need to happen at the same time; we have to strengthen and modernize our system to make it more resistant to authoritarianism and demagoguery.  And we have to keep Trump out of the White House.  They’re both real challenges and time is of the essence.
 
For my interview of Miles on the podcast click here.  For Miles’s book click here.  To help Forward modernize our democracy click here.  

Summer Update

Hello, I hope that your summer is going great!  I'm writing this from Ohio after celebrating Independence Day at a barbecue upstate.  

Here in Ohio I met with Forward leaders and volunteers and got to introduce Dave Chappelle at his comedy show in Yellow Springs. It was a blast complete with epic fireworks.  

I’ve gotten great feedback on my talk at Aspen Ideas Festival on why we need a new party – so much so that we turned it into the podcast episode this week.  You can listen to it here or watch it on YouTube here.  
 
While I was in Colorado, the mayor of Fort Collins, Jeni Arndt, joined the Forward Party!  It was a massive win, as Jeni is a former state legislator who just wants to deliver for her constituents without having to play the partisan games.  That brings the number of elected officials who are affiliated with Forward to 15 – and there are more on the way.  Stay tuned. 
 
It’s been an exciting time for Forward, as we welcomed new Board members Krist Novoselic, co-founder of the rock band Nirvana, and Kerry Healey, former Lt. Governor of Massachusetts and President of Babson College among others.  These are serious, amazing people and leaders who are committed to making politics work for the people of this country.  Our CEO Lindsey Williams-Drath is continuing to put us on a path to success with the help of Matt Shinners, Joel Searby and many others. 
 
I saw a couple Forward team members, Kait Saier and Ali Backsheider, when I was in Ohio this weekend.  We met with local activists and leaders and had a lot of fun.  
 
This week I’m in New York for a few meetings before heading out West for a month or so.  I’ll also be pre-signing copies of my new book, “The Last Election,” a political thriller that I co-wrote with novelist Stephen Marche that comes out on September 12th.  It’s hard to believe that’s in two months. It’s about the campaign manager of a third party presidential candidate, a journalist who gets ahold of some juicy info, and what could happen in a system that doesn’t evolve with the times.  Could our next election be our last?  The book is already receiving positive reviews and I hope people enjoy it!  You can pre-order a signed copy today from the publisher here with the discount code LASTELECTION.  
 
The summer has been busy, but we are getting in our fair share of family time.  I hope that you are too.  Enjoy yourself – these are the times that we should relish and take advantage of!  There’s much to be grateful for and a lot to do.

To check out Forward in your area click here.  To check out summer movie times near you click here.  And wear sunscreen!    

Coming Apart or Coming Together

Hello, I hope that you are having a wonderful summer thus far!  4th of July is always a phenomenal holiday. 
 
What path is America on?  One of the thinkers who has influenced me the most these past several years is Peter Turchin, a Professor at the University of Connecticut who started out as a theoretical biologist.  He has since helped develop a science of history and societies measuring various data points to find relationships and patterns in big historical cycles.  I cite his work in both the War on Normal People and Forward. 

Peter has observed that societies typically have periods of integration followed by disintegration, each measured in decades.  He has developed a model that measures political stress that incorporates income and wealth inequality, wage stagnation, national debt, competition between elites, distrust in government, social mobility, tax rates, urban density, demographics and other factors that have led to instability and conflict in other settings.  Unfortunately we are now at Civil War levels: 

Turchin has a new book out, “End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration” that we discuss on the podcast this week.  “America is a plutocracy at this point,” Turchin says.  “Some people might not like to hear that, but that’s who has power and influence in the current system.”  “The top .1% or 1% or 10% of have reaped enormous benefits this past number of decades while things haven’t changed or have even gotten more unaffordable for the vast majority of Americans,” Turchin notes.  He calls this process the wealth pump; it exacerbates inequality while immiserating the vast majority.     
 
Peter describes an ever-growing group of aspiring elites that are left on the outside looking in.  “Think of it as a game of musical chairs, only the number of players keeps growing while the chairs stay the same.”  Peter argues that this predictably leads to political instability according to the experience of other societies.  He distinguishes among elites who have some combination of physical coercive power, economic power, administrative power and soft power of culture and influence.  In each, there are growing numbers of people who feel themselves on the outside looking in. 
 
He writes, “[H]uman societies follow predictable trajectories into revolutionary situations.  But how are these crises resolved?  Now that America is in crisis, we want to know what could happen next.”  Peter’s model projects surging political violence in the 2020s with repeating cycles of strife and exhaustion.
 
What does the model recommend to change this path?  Peter says, “The most direct thing you could do to help would be to increase the relative wage for most Americans.  This would reduce both the immiseration and elite overproduction.” 
 
I expressed to Peter in our conversation that popular frustration is manifesting as political polarization; we are told to blame the other ideological side.  He agreed and said, “One of the ways to push toward the positive path is when people on different political sides put aside their differences and start working together to address the root problems.”  That’s what most Americans want.  Unfortunately, if Peter’s data is an indicator, things might get worse before they get better.  Let’s spur a new form of politics as quickly as possible. 

For my conversation with Peter, click here.  To help Forward break us out of this cycle, click here. For my recent talk at Aspen Ideas on why a new party is needed click here.

AI, Regulation and Humanity

Hello, I hope all is great!  Forward is still buzzing about the news last week in PA. 
 
I appeared on CNBC last week to talk about the need for an AI-dedicated federal agency.  AI and its implementations are evolving so quickly that it needs to be the sole focus of knowledgeable regulators. 

One of the most prominent AI experts making a similar case is Gary Marcus, professor emeritus at NYU and founder of an AI company. Gary called for an International Agency to govern AI in a widely seen TED talk last month.  “These tools are so good at giving convincing narratives about just about anything.  I’m deeply concerned about misinformation.  Bad actors will use AI tools to threaten democracy.”
 
Gary took his message to the US Senate where he recently testified.  He said to me, “A ton of Senators from both parties showed up; there’s a clear desire to understand what the impact of AI is likely to be.  That was encouraging.”
 
Gary sat down with me in a podcast interview this week.  Among his proposed policies  - licenses for AI models. “I think licenses for AI models are a good idea.  They’re going to be used by millions of people, so it stands to reason that someone should make sure they’re not doing something destructive before they’re rolled out.” 
 
Gary’s big calls at TED were to synthesize both symbolic systems and neural networks in next-generation AI and to establish an international regulatory body.  Gary is skeptical that sentient reasoning AI – often described as Artificial General Intelligence (“AGI”) - is around the corner.  “I’d be very surprised if AGI is achieved in, say, the next decade.  But we have enough to be worried about with the current generative models and their uses right now.” 
 
I agree with Gary on just about every front.  There is a massive need for international collaboration on AI as well as a more coherent federal approach that includes a dedicated agency.  “91% of people think that we should carefully manage AI,” Gary notes.  I hope that our government rises to the challenge.   
 
I sometimes joke that Washington D.C. is on a twenty-year tape delay, in part because of the advanced ages of many of our leaders.  Legislators have been asleep at the switch when it came to social media for the past 20 years.  We’ve all paid for it.  Policy and politics are now often at cross-purposes; delivering good policy is more likely to exact a cost for individual actors than to reward them.  That’s what we have to change. 
 
I hope that we break from our recent pattern where AI is concerned.  It’s no exaggeration to say that our future is at stake.  Let’s make solutions politically rewarding and back those who want to do the right thing. 
 
For my interview with Gary click here. 
 
Click here to sign up as a recurring donor to Forward and get invited to a live zoom with me, Lindsey Drath the CEO of Forward, and many others this Wednesday!